Traing Camp Blog - 2009
Posted: 8/26/09
8/26/09
Just a quick update to give you some of the risers and fallers
over the past week. Things are starting to heat up.
Rising...
Mark Sanchez is your starter for you Jets fans. In 4 years, Clemens just hasn't been able to lock down a starting position. It's probably safe to dump him unless you have the rosters space and you're also a Sanchez owner.
CLE RB James Davis may be the hottest pickup in the preseason. While not highly drafted, he is making the most of his opportunities and is playing behind aging veteran Jamal Lewis. I had Davis ranked more highly than most and it is not out of the question for him to be getting meaningful touches soon.
SF RB Glenn Coffee has made enough of an impression to lock down the #2 RB role. In a chat with an ESPN analyst, Coffee was mentioned as his favorite later round RB selection for his physicality, downhill running ability and nice hands. Looks like he will be getting an avg. of 6 touches a game potentially and is a must pick-up for any Gore owner.
IND WR Austin Collie is making the most of his opportunities
and appears to be rising on the depth chart. I'm not a big fan of Collie
personally, but any #3 WR in IND has more value than a similar role on
most other teams.
PHI RB LeSean McCoy has looked great all preseason and
certainly appears to be a dynamic back. Not that physical, but shifty,
Shady McCoy is going to get meaningful touches this year.
TEN RB Javon Ringer has all but locked up the #3 role. The undersized back has turned heads this preseason and has made RB Chris Henry very droppable.
NYG Ramses Barden is still turning heads and could be playing ahead of Hakeem Nicks but I don't necessarily believe the hype yet.
Could it be that MIN QB Tarvaris Jackson, who was busy
packing his bags, is actually safe on the roster after a nice preseason
game showing? Yes, but few should really care.
SEA RB Edgerrin James can only be rising now that he
has found a good situation. This isn't great news for RB Julius
Jones but Coach Mora has addressed the situation telling the
media that Jones is still the "workhorse". At least until the
2nd half of week 1.
WAS WR Malcolm Kelly has passed fellow 2nd year WR Devin
Thomas on the depth chart. It's a chance but I feel both are
destined for anonymity. For the most part, so is the the entire WAS skill
position group save Chris Cooley.
If you have a thing for no-named WRs in MIA, take a flyer on
Rex Hilliard. Championship.
If you want a smart player to stow on your roster, take a leap of faith
on KC QB Tyler Thigpen. I liked what Thigpen showed in
the 2nd half of 2008 and he put up sick fantasy numbers considering his
position and anonymity. There's something about this kid worthy of a spot
and while I thought he'd have a chance in K.C., it seems that his best
chance for future production may come from another team.
Falling...
CLE WR Brian Robiskie has stabilized from his earlier descent but still looks average. Don't get overly excited about any rookie WR.
NYJ RB Thomas Jones owners had better have the Shonn
Greene handcuff. Jones is aging quickly and has lost too much
value now to be traded for anything other than a ham sandwich and a late
second round pick.
WAS QB Jason Campbell's value is dropping at ever-quickening
pace. The writing is on the wall, trade him now while you can.
JAX QB David Garrard, similar to Jason Campbell, has probably seen his best days and JAX is sure to add either a rookie or QB with upside soon (or via the draft). It's safe to say that Jax brass feels that the Garrard experiment has most likely failed. I agree.
8/16/09
As you will certainly note, I am abandoning the division by division
blogging. There just is little sense to force discussion on individual
teams when you, the fantasy junkie, would much rather have analysis of
whose value is moving without regard to which division or team they play
for. And movement there is a plenty....
Preason games are in full force and the rookie watch is on.
Don't give up on VY just yet. As a VY holder as well,
I too have been tempted to cut ties and fill the roster slot with someone
that has more immediate upside. Put me in the column of those that thought
eulogy for VY after last week's preseason game was far to preliminary.
VY's performance last week was not nearly as bad as anyone thought. There
was a bad pick largely due to a miscommunication and early season rust.
That is why these games are played. I also believe, after a nice showing
this week, that those that are calling for VY to start are also far too
preliminary. However, another quality start could make things interesting
... but he must get reps against the first string before anything significant
happens.
Staying in TEN, both Kenny Britt and Jevon Ringer
had nice games. Ringer is a tough inside runner for his size and has nice
wiggle. His game speed is much better than his 4.60 would suggest. Britt
has struggled with his hamstring but in TEN, who has WR issues, Britt
should have every chance to win the third WR role and perhaps push as
a starter. Ringer will be well stuck behind CJ and White
but should be able to pass Chris Henry. Henry owners
have been served.
Outside of Ronnie Brown, MIA is a dead zone. Davone
Bess is earning praise and came from anonymity last year to have
a decent rookie season with 54 catches. While worthy of a roster spot
in deeper leagues, one must temper any expectation.
In New England, the only real question is "who will get the lion's
share of carries out of the backfield. The only player of note is Laurence
Maroney as he is still young and has talent when healthy. Problem
is, a talented injury prone player is often far more trouble than they
are worth. Unfortunately, nothing to see here ... move along until things
clear.
In New York, the Jets are obviously steaming towards Sanchez being
named the starter. He is as easily the starter as I am not. However, every
year it seems that WR Cotchery is on the hot sleeper
list. I have removed him from my list and have no NYJ WR on my list as
it stands. I recommend the same for you. Sure, you can burn a spot for
a Cotchery or Stuckey, but I wouldn't count them amongst
your core bench players. The real story is one Shonn Greene,
who continues to impress. Rumors continue to swirl that Thomas
Jones is being shopped although the coaching staff have jumped
on the story as only being purely a rumor. I don't necessarily believe
them. Any savvy Thomas Jones owner has drafted Shonn Greene or traded
Jones to an owner that has Greene.
In BAL, Flacco is putting up decent numbers in the preseason
while supposedly underwheling in practice. As a Flacco owner myself, my
biggest concern is not Flacco's continued development (although that certainly
is a concern) but, instead, the complete lack of focus on developing a
noteworthy stable of receivers. Baltimore brass is notorious for not being
willing to move high draft selections for existing talent (Anquan
Boldin) which is beyond surprsing. Ray Rice
is having a nice camp and is a player to be acquired right now ... he
runs tougher than his size and has nice hands. He should be receiving
a bulk of the carries by week 6, if not sooner.
In CIN, Chris Henry is on the rise. Dare I even say it.
The year is still young. And, Stay by your phone, you may be receiving
a call to be the next TE for the Bengals after losing nearly every one
to injury..
Rising...
Donald Brown appears to be as advertised. He was my favorite
rookie RB in the class. Don't expect anything more than a timeshare in
IND, at least until Addai is hurt again.
Chaz Schillens had a nice game and continues to impress.
Now only if he didn't play for a the Raiders. He should be rostered regardless
of where he plays.
Danny Ware will ascend into an unconested role as the
third RB on the the Giants after the season ending achilles injury to
Andre Brown.
Jared Cook continues to get more positive press, if that
is possible. In the TEN system, if Cook can win the job, he could put
up first year top-12 TE results.
Sam Hurd is closing the gap held by Crayton
and Miles in Big D. However, I'm not a fan of any WR
in Dallas not named Roy Williams.
Ryan Grant owners are breathing easier in that he seems
to have returned to form. Deshawn Wynn is pushing for
more time but I don't see Brandon Jackson losing his
#2 role. He continues to avg. more than 5 ypc and has the best hands of
any back on the GB roster.
Sage Rosenfels should be named the starter within the
next two weeks. The starter in MIN has a lot of value that many coaches
may not realize. If you can add him cheaply, do so.
There has been a Jeremy Shockey sighting in the Big Easy.
Could it be? Sure, until he's hurt again. Until then, he's showing chemistry
with Brees and is healthy. Just don't bank on it long
term.
Tim Hightower continues to earn praise as being the best
back on the roster. I'm just not a fan of Beannie Wells.
James Jones is leading the race to be GB's #3 WR. With
Donald Driver getting ever-older, the third receiver
position has near term value.
Falling...
Tarvaris Jackson is losing his grip on the starter role. It's
about over.
Brian Robiskie was a "riser" last week but
now is said to be losing ground to Mohamed Massaquoi.
Still probably too close to call.
CLE QBs. Underwhelming almost across the board. Some CLE beat writers
are calling for Brett Ratliff to be the darkhorse candidate
to start. It's Quinn's job to lose and I believe CLE has to see what Quinn
can do under center, at least until their bye week.
Kyle Orton had a terrible game sending many Denver fans
into a panic. Nothing to worry about unless he follows it up with another
disappointing performance.
Impressive RB specimen Andre Brown's season has ended
after blowing out his achilles. While not the dreaded ACL, a ruptured
achilles has a long recovery time as well. Not many rookie RBs that have
a season ending injury like that reemerge on the radar.
Crabtree owners can probably now write off the season.
Not in camp, not close to being signed and not going to get better than
pick #10 money all point to this season being lost. I don't expect that
Crabtree will make the epic mistake of reentering next year's draft, but
it does remain a possibility.
Jax QB David Garrard is struggling in camp and the writing
is on the wall. Expect Jax to select a QB in the first round of 2010.
If you are an owner of Garrard, I would seek to move him now.
Free Agent Addition of the week:
Nate Burleson - While all other coaches are combing
the wires for the next unknown rookie that caught a ball in camp, scored
two TDs in the second half of a preseason game or received public praise
by his head coach, quietly check your wire for Nate Burleson. He is only
27 years old, looks to have finally returned to form and is catching everything
in camp. You could do a lot worse than having Burleson as your emergency
WR3, especially considering his clutch big play ability.
8/9/09
It's that time again ... what main believe is the official start of the
new fantasy season. While I, myself, am one that believes that the NFL
draft is the official start of the new season, I am not blind to the fact
that there is something more formal once all training camps are open and
the Hall of Fame game is in the books.
Let's not waste any more of your valuable time trying to write some nifty
opening that only delays your eyes reaching what you are truly after.
Camps are barely open but there have been some notable events, positional
surprises and early injuries to take note of. This year I am going to
go division by division and end by noting some risers and fallers overall.
In the NFC West...
In Seattle, Aaron Curry, is finally signed and in camp. IDP'ers do seem to be over valuing Curry. Tatupu is still the tackling machine for the Seahawks and Curry will be lined up in the Sam, which should limit his numbers a bit. But he will be rushing the QB and could have a few more big plays than a standard LB play.
TJ Houshmandzadeh looks to be in form and should be
a better play in PPR leagues than performance leagues, but he is durable
and should pull down a number of balls for the Hawks. Many are sleeping
on Julius Jones and I feel he will outperform his general
ranking.
In San Francisco, things look bad for Michael Crabtree.
More accurately, things look bad for Crabtree owners. A deal does not
appear to be in the near future and word was that he is/was willing to
sit out the year in order to improve his contract in 2010. Rather than
waste a lot of words on this ridiculous tactic, if it is true, let me
just say that there is little way for Crabtree to improve his stock, this
year or next. A stunt like this will not go over well with his current
teammates or his future ones.
Josh Morgan is having a great camp thus far and appears
to be a major sleeper candidate. Brandon Jones, in his
first year in the red and gold was also having a good camp until suffering
a shoulder injury that will sideline him for up to 2 months. With an even
race between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill,
if the 49er QB race wasn't already underwhelming enough, the absence of
proven receivers make the 9'er offense questionable at best. I am continuing
to downgrade RB1 Frank Gore.
In Arizona, nothing significant has changed. The RB duel between Hightower
and Wells appears even and it looks like a dreaded committee,
although at least it is only between the two of them. Hightower is outplaying
Wells early, but I just don't see Wells staying #2 for long. The real
battle to watch is the battle for the backup QB gig between Leinart
and Brian St. Pierre. Leinart is perhaps the top rated
backup QB in the league as it relates to dynasty value, but only if he
can eventually be the starter in that high-powered Cardinal offense.
In St. Louis, they have a lot of work to be done. I think it is even money
that the Rams have the first pick in 2010. But regardless, they will be
bad enough to lock up one of the 3-4 significant rookie QBs in the 2010
draft. My money is still on Bradford. I don't see QB Bulger
holding onto his job long into 2009. Bulger's best days are behind him
and St. Louis need to determine how big the need really is at QB. Kyle
Boller has everything needed to be a good NFL QB, as long as
you are willing to ignore his entire career of under-performance.
Steven Jackson is still a top 5 RB in dynasty but he
is steadily losing value. In the Ram's system, just how much how much
respect are starting receivers Donnie Avery and Keenan
Burton going to generate to keep opposing Ds from stacking the
box. This receiving duo may be bad enough that we will see the first 11-in-the-box
defense played at some point during the year. Speaking of Avery, a significant
foot injury will sideline him for the entire preseason. Things just keep
looking up. One bright spot may be rookie MLB, James Laurinaitis.
The Ram's D should be on the field and behind a lot in 2009 giving Laurinaitis
plenty of opportunties.
Around the league:
Rising...
In Big D, Roy Williams and Tony Romo
appear to be getting on the same page. I'm not convinced that R-Dub can
be a true #1 anymore, but he is going to get his chance.
Hakeem Nicks is catching everything in sight and he will
be given every chance to become a starter out of the gate. From everything
I am hearing and reading, all Giant receivers are having good camps and
the race is wide open.
Earl Bennett looks to have a starting position locked
up opposite Devin Hester and reminds me a lot of Greg
Jennings. Now that he has old teammate Jay Cutler
throwing to him, don't discount the relationship. Hard to really expect
big numbers out of a CHI receiver however. But in Dynasty, don't fall
asleep on Bennett.
RB Kevin Smith will be the primary carrier in DET and
has added weight and stamina to his game. He is getting through holes
quickly and should catch a lot of balls out of the backfield. The DET
offense will be improved this year and this will only help Smith.
QB Matt Stafford is perhaps the highlight of the preseason.
Stafford is performing on par with a multi-year veteran and is already
drawing praise for his leadership, playbook command and his arm. I don't
see him opening the season as the starter but certainly will be by mid
year ... unless Culpepper has the Lions better than .500
by week 8. Stafford just seems to have that "it" factor.
In Green Bay, Jermichael Finley looks to be unseating
veteran Donald Lee and is said to be "uncoverable" thus far.
Finley's strength, size and speed could pay huge dividends in GB's TE
friendly system. He should not be on your waiver wire at this point.
Percy Harvin is generating a buzz every day in camp and
will be used all over the field. I believe most are forgetting that Harvin
is injury-plagued but save that, he is a truly dynamic player that could
play a very large roll on the offense. I don't believe he will replace
Sydney Rice but he doesn't have to in order to have an
immediate fantasy impact.
Patrick Turner in Miami is said to look fluid, big and
is getting off the line quickly. In an offense that needs WRs to step
up, keep your eyes on the camp battle.
RB Ray Rice looks to have unseated both McGahee
and McClain for the bulk of the touches. Rice is bigger,
stronger and adds another dimension for the Ravens due to his good hands.
Rice's value is no longer a secret but there is still a lot of upside.
WR Brian Robiskie is expected to be starting opposite
of Braylon Edwards and early projections have been as
high as 80 receptions. I have a hard time seeing that in Cleveland's offense,
but a possession receiver may have more value here.
RB Donald Brown vs. Joseph Addai is
another very intriguing camp battle. Noone expects Brown to overtake Addai
as the starter, but it seems that the dreaded RBBC will result. Brown
has better hands than Addai and is more dynamic. Addai's anemic YPC should
have him on notice and IND is not afraid to trade away a young RB if they
think they have their "next". Research Marshall Faulk.
WR Mike Walker has Jags players talking. He is catching
a lot of balls in camp and is using his size well to break jams and get
body position to make tough catches. Walker is a mega-sleeper and is most
likely already on a fantasy roster in your league, but if not, don't wait.
TE Jared Cook is making a case for being the starter
ahead of both Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler.
Scaife will most likely remain in the starting role, but notice has been
served. Cook has a nice blend of size and speed and should be tough to
cover on seam routes.
WR Chris Henry is once again lighting up camp and teasing
fantasy owners. You just have to worry about what any level of success
could do to his psyche. The best you can hope for is for him to get it
soon so you don't have to keep him around forever.
Falling...
TE Cornelius Ingram's career may have ended before it
began. He has been lost to the dreaded ACL tear, his second in two years.
Washington WRs in total. Sure, there is lots of talk
about the group stepping up and exciting things being on the horizon but
I just don't believe it's in the cards.
St. Louis WRs. Avery, Burton, Robinson, Curry?
I don't think so. Avery's injury makes this a dismal squad. It's going
to be a long year in St. Louis. Thankfully, any expectations for the season
should be in the tank by the end of the first game.
NYJ WRs. The Jets' coaching staff is waiting for a receiver
to step up. That's never a good sign with the season a month away.
Miami WRs. What is it with sub-par receiving groups this
year. Just throw Miami on the pile and walk away. Tedd Ginn is
more of a question than he is an answer.
Oakland WRs. If Chaz Schillens is your
standout WR, you're in trouble.
Baltimore WRs. Sure, Derrick Mason has
decided not to retire after being 99.5% sure he was going to. All the
rest of us were 100% sure that this was a money issue and that he would
be back. But Mason is 67 years old and twice as good as any other receiver
on that squad. So why is it that they won't move their next year's #1
for Anquan Boldin? Sure ... Billick was the problem.
Marshawn Lynch's suspension was upheld by the league and an objective coach has to question whether or not Lynch really gets it or not. As a Lynch owner, I can objectively say that whether he does or doesn't, his value is NOT increasing.
Jamarcus Russell. Big ship, iceburg ... you finish the
story.
Darrius Heyward-Bey is crashing perhaps even quicker
than both Ken Kelly and I thought he would. There is so little doubt about
him busting in my mind that it's almost unfair. Al Davis should have called
Minnesota brass to see how Troy Williamson worked out
before blowing their pick on DHB.
[
Discuss This Article in the Dynasty Discussion Forum! ]