2008 Draft Blog
2008 Draft Blog- News & Notes
The first two rounds are in the books and the first word that comes to mind is "wow!" In many cases, this is now a draft of one. Read on and chime in on our forums ....
Saturday, Apr. 26
First Round
A fair number of surprises were had today and even more than I was saying before, the tiers of this year's crop of rookies, as it relates to fantasy production, are far less than ideal and consist of a first tier of 1 RB and 1 QB, followed by a very large 2nd tier ... and we aren't even into the third round yet. When looking at this draft as it is unfolding, pick #2 in your fantasy draft could be as good as pick #8 or #9 within a year or two. Furthermore, a grand total of zero WRs came off the board, for the first time in almost 20 years.
1.03 Matt Ryan becomes the first fantasy starter taken when the Falcons
made the right choice by getting a new face for the francheise. He has
the best opportunity to start right away and will be this year's 50/50
prospect at QB.
1.04 Darren McFadden is the only sure-fire #1 fantasy selection as he
was selected by Oakland. Michael Bush, Justin Fargas and Lamont Jordan
owners could be heard crying in their beer as the pick was made, but McFadden
most likely won't become an instant Adrian Peterson style fantasy player.
There is a chance but that Oakland offense leaves a lot to be desired
currently. If you have pick #1, make the pick now ... there is no decision
to be made.
1.13 Jonathan Stewart is chosen by Carolina, squashing the optimism that
was briefly had by those owning Deang
elo Williams. It is obvious that CAR does not believe that Williams is
anything more than a 3rd down back. This also reduces Stewart's fantasy
value in a relatively significant way. If you are holding the #2 pick,
you can't feel great about it.
1.18 Baltimore panics and trades up to select Joe Flacco far too early
at #18. Much like Ryan, Flacco will have a good chance to start but it
is more likely that Boller will open the season as the starter while Flacco
holds the clipboard and learns the speed of the game.
1.22 Dallas gets their man, Felix Jones, even considering the fact that
Mendenhall was still on the board. Jones is a better complement to Marion
Barber and word is that DAL wants both to get about 10-15 carries. Once
again, this is not a great situation for Barber, nor Barber. If you are
holding pick #3 or #4, you aren't happy.
1.23 Pittsburgh has Mendenhall fall in their lap and waste no time in
selecting him, obviously crushing the spirits of Willie Parker owners.
Obviously, there is not a lot of confidence in Parker's ability to carry
the load and it looks to be another situation like DAL and CAR.
1.24 In one of the biggest surprises of the first round, TEN ignores,
for the second year in a row, their glaring need at WR in order to take
middle tier and inexperienced speed reciever Chris Johnson. With LenDale
White still the starter and Chris Henry currently #2, TEN made good on
their talk about adding a 3rd RB to replace the lost Chris Brown. Why?
Not even the TEN fans seem to know. Chris Johnson has world class speed,
but little experience and little ability to run inside. Another thunder
and lightning play at best. For two years running now, TEN brass ignore
the WR position which must be very frustrating for Vince Young. When looking
at Young's stats, it is obvious that he needs receivers ... so they MUST
have something magical planned.
1.30 #1 rated TE, Dustin Keller finds himself a Jet with decent upside
and immediate starting capability. Not a sexy pick in fantasy drafts but
one that could be made if you are in need of a TE.
Second Round
WRs finally started coming off the board and two more RBs found homes.
Perhaps the strangest occurrence(s) involved the order of drafted WRs.
2.02 Donnie Avery was selected by St. Louis as the first WR off the board.
Avery was ranked in the double digits on my draft board and on Mel Kiper's
as well. Donnie Avery?
2.03 Devin Thomas, WR, selected by Washington. The Redskins have to be
ecstatic at this selection as Thomas was the top rated WR on most boards
and has a nice blend of size, speed and hands. On the downside, he only
has a single year of performance much like last year's fast riser, Robert
Meachem.
2.05 Green Bay selects Jordy Nelson, WR. Another surprising selection
as reciever was not a need for the Packers and Nelson wasn't rated this
high on many boards. That said, Nelson has good size, good speed and is
a gritty receiver. What does this mean for James Jones owners?
2.07 Seattle fills a need with their selection of John Carlson, a TE that
will most likely see the field on day one. Not a sexy pick, Carlson is
highly rated on TE boards and will be a good fit in the Seattle offense.
2.10 Buffalo, who smartly passed on a WR early in the first round, gets
a good one, James Hardy, here in the second round. Hardy has great size,
hands and speed and will be starting opposite Lee Evans from day one.
Hardy looks a lot like Plaxico Burress and could eventually have similar
numbers.
2.11 Denver selects WR Eddie Royal. Another stunning pick as Royal is
a smallish WR and battled multiple injuries and doesn't really seem to
fit Denver's system.
2.13 RB Matt Forte' was selected by the Bears, hurts Benson's value and
makes it obvious that the Bears truly do feel that Benson MAY be a bust.
The Bears did address their O-line issues in the first round and Benson
will most likely get at least a few games to display that which the Bears
saw when they drafted him. Forte' is a good back but did not sit highly
on most RB boards. He has great hands for a big back, good size and decent
speed and could be given a chance if Benson continues to falter.
2.15 Jerome Simpson, WR, selected by the Bengals in yet another surprising
move. Simpson has good size at 6'2" but isn't a high profile player
and he played small school ball. But CIN obviously saw something to suggest
that he was a better risk than Limas Sweed, Macolm Kelly and Desean Jackson.
2.17 TE Fred Davis lands in an undesirable situation in Washington. Incumbent
TE, Chris Cooley, is going nowhere and is still young ... meaning that
Davis will remain on the bench for a lengthy time, barring injury.
2.18 DeSean Jackson finally comes off the board to Philadelphia. The Eagles
have to be thrilled here getting the diminutive speedster who will play
slot receiver and special teams. He doesn't project to be a big fantasy
producer but whenever a player gets punt/kick return duties, there does
exist some upside.
2.20 After selecting Devin Thomas and Fred Davis, Washington adds another
piece by selecting Malcolm Kelly, once considered the #1 receiver on the
board. Injury and speed issues dogged Kelly in the last month and his
drop will certainly motivate him to produce on the field. One of Kelly
or Thomas will start opposite Santana Moss and you can expect to see plenty
of three receiver sets as well.
2.22 Pittsburgh makes good on Big Ben's wishes for a big receiver with
their selection of LImas Sweed, dashing Tennessee's hopes one pick behind
at 2.23. Sweed's injury status scared off many teams and you have to believe
that Tennessee lost it's gamble. Sweed will be featured in three receiver
sets aside Santonio Holmes and Heinz Ward.
2.24 Baltimore makes an interesting selection with their value pick of
Ray Rice. Incumbent starter Willis McGahee has not shot the lights out
but has been productive and is still young. Rice will certainly spell
McGahee and will get time as a 3rd down back as well. This is yet another
one of the RBs in a large 2nd tier which will be chosen somewhere between
#2 and #9 or #10.
2.25 What do you do when you have a young QB that has been waiting to
take the field after Brett Favre? You make him press with a selection
of another young QB on the very next draft. The Packers selected Brian
Brohm with what was certainly a value selection. Brohm will enter as the
#2 but has the skills to take over as a starter if Aaron Rodgers fails
to impress.
2.26 In nearly an identical move, the Dolphins selected Chad Henne to
pressure John Beck. Henne's stock, unlike Brohm's, had been rising of
late but that failed to pay dividends as many thought that Henne would
come off the board late in the first or early second round. Henne has
an uphill battle to start but Parcells does not have the patience to stick
with an under-performing QB.
2.27 Tampa Bay addresses their WR need by selecting Dexter Jackson. I
am not a fan of Jackson but he doesn't have to play for me. Jackson is
quick but I just don't see him making an impact in the NFL.
2.30 After trading Anthony Fasasno, Dallas selected TE Martellus Bennett.
Bennett was quietly rising on draft boards and was a basketball player,
much like Antonio Gates. Bennett probably won't be selected in anything
other than very deep fantasy drafts.
That's a wrap for today on the first two rounds. Myself and fellow
DLF partner, Ken Kelly, were genuinely surprised at how the RBs and WRs
came off the board. Owners of middle picks cannot be happy with the events
of today and we don't see many trades out of those picks unless you are
drafting for handcuffs.
As I have said many times before, the value of draft picks ALWAYS falls
after the draft and this is the perfect example of why. That is not to
say that there won't be future stars from this very deep class of RBs
but having pick #2 or #3 does not appear to have any signifcant player
value over that of #6 or #7 at this point. Time will tell, but the 2nd
tier is widening.
There still exists three RBs to keep an eye on tomorrow. Jamal Charles,
Kevin Smith and Steve Slaton should all come off the board tomorrow, most
likely in round 3. Slaton may fall to round 4. With such teams as DET,
HOU, ARI and maybe even RB killer DEN looking for backs, more intrigue
awaits.
In the last piece of info for tonight, RB Lorenzo Booker was traded from
Miami to Philadelphia, in exchange for a 4th round selection. Booker looks
a lot like a young Brian Westbrook and could be in line for a few starts
should Westbrook go down with an injury. Currently, Buckhalter has a firm
grasp on the #2 RB, but PHI obviously feels that Westbrook may be an injury
risk.
We'll be back tomorrow with more new and notes from day 2.
Sunday, Apr. 20
Six days and counting. If you don't understand what I'm talking about,
you're not a fantasy football dynasty league coach and are, with all certainty,
wasting your time. For the rest of us, few days in the off season bring
as much excitement as does the NFL Draft.
In the last month, quite a bit has taken place. Nothing shocking necessarily
but plenty of nuggets that have fantasy impact.
Lets start by looking at some of the rookie news and notes:
Malcolm Kelly appears to be in full free-fall mode now due to questions
regarding his knees and, now, his speed. Kelly went on a tirade about
the running surface during his slow 40 and promptly scheduled a new workout
on a faster track. He shaved no more than .03 off his 40 and still ran
in the 4.6s, not good enough to keep him in the first round and very possibly
not even in the second. Questionable injury status combined with unimpressive
speed doesn't even add up to Dwayne Jarrett. I think his earlier status
will be too much to pass up in the late second round, but most draft experts
now believe he is a third round candidate.
Desean Jackson is climbing draft boards and at least a half dozen teams
seem to be genuinely interested. If he were to fall to the second round,
which he won't, the Rams would certainly take him with their 2nd selection
in that round. At this point, he appears to be a mid first round selection
and probably won't make it past TEN in the 20s, if he were to fall that
far. He could be the first or the second WR off the board, I'm betting
on 2nd or 3rd.
The first WR off the board would appear to be no other than board-climber
Devin Thomas. From the combine, Thomas has been climbing draft boards
across the league and now appears to be an early round selection, to the
likes of BUF at #11. A 4.40 40 and good size will do that to a WR. He
is no lock to be fantasy producer but he would get an early chance at
success in BUF.
Much like Malcom Kelly, Mario Manningham is falling due to apparent drug
use and lying during the combine portion of interviews. While he did send
a retraction after the combine, it is too little too late. In the wake
of such ego maniacs as Chad Johnson and T.O., owners are steering away
from ultra-cocky and brash WR primadonnas ... and those that lie get even
less points. Those that lie while smoking a "J" find themselves
in the third round. That all said, you know there will be at least one
team that thinks that they can reform him ... but this just in, it won't
be CIN.
Also rising on draft boards are the likes of James Hardy and Donnie Avery.
Hardy is a big receiver that displayed better than average speed while
Avery is a mid-sized WR who is believed to play much faster than his 40
in the 4.40s. Hardy could find himself on the back side of round one but
still appears to be a 2nd round selection. Avery is a solid late 2nd round
selection or below.
On the RB front, McFadden is still the top choice at #1 and looks to be
going to either the Raiders at #4 or the Jets at #6. My bet is on McFadden
at #4, but not necessarily the Raiders. I doubt that Big Al will be able
to pass up the possibility of landing DMc but if he was logical, he could
get a ton of compensation for his #4 choice this year.
#2 selection Rashard Mendenhall remains a very solid #2 in fantasy drafts.
I could foresee Mendenhall at #1 in some league drafts depending on drafted
situation, but I believe it isn't rocket science to predict that #1 and
#2 are in stone in 90% of upcoming drafts.
Speaking of Mendenhall, he has overtaken Stewart as the #2 RB on the board.
I personally would like to have seen more of a resume' on him, but he
looks to have the NFL body, size and speed to be very productive for a
long time ... in the right situation. Beware of DET's pick at #15. DET
is where RBs go to die and that, along with an unsettled QB situation,
could create some very lean years for a new DET RB. Kevin Jones has to
be very happy as he rehabs from his latest knee injury. A selection of
Mendenhall by DET at #15 is not a good scenario for a coach holding the
#2.
Jonathan Stewart had surgery on his foot which tends to scare away money
when it comes to the draft. Once considered a possible top 10 selection,
some mocks have found Stewart at the top of the 2nd round due to concern
over his injury. I don't see this happening. Stewart won't go any later
than to Seattle at #25. Stewart is a NW product (I have followed him from
high school), played for the Oregon Ducks and Seattle would love to keep
him here in the NW.
Each year, the fantasy draft can be broken up into tiers of possible impact.
The first tier this year begins at pick #1 and ends and pick #2. The second
tier is pick #3 alone. The third tier is 7 deep and runs from pick #4
through #10. This tiering is very interesting as the #4 pick really does
not have significantly more value than does #8 or #9, or even #10 ...
predraft. Remember that picks will lose value after the draft. Where #4
looks to be Felix Jones, it is hard to say that Jones looks that much
better than Chris Johnson, Jamal Charles or even Ray Rice or Matt Forte'.
It is certain, as happens every year, that good backs (this year in picks
4-10) will go to bad situations, increasing the value of #4.
That all said, if you have to trade up to #4, now is the time to do it with such a large third tier. I suspect that #4 will be higher in value after the draft because it is the first pick in the 3rd tier. There are still a few quality teams in the mix for RBs and one of those will rise to the top for the 4th selection.
If you take a look at last year's fantasy draft, you will understand how later picks will eventually lose value. For example, Antonio Pittman could have been the third RB off the board, given pre-draft value. When looking at the likes of Pittman, Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, etc. it is all too easy to get too excited about RBs taken in the 2nd round. Some of these players will most likely make an impact at some point, but production rarely occurs in year one and isn't guaranteed at all.
The WR position has the highest bust rate in fantasy drafts. Previous research will find that you have less than a 25% chance of having a fantasy producer and that a top ten fantasy selection of a WR is a very risky move. In 2008, no single WR jumps out as a top ten choice. In my primary Dynasty league draft, I believe that the first WR off the board may not be until the teens.
If you are in the market for a RB, this is the draft for you. Not due
to the fact that there are that many quality backs in this draft, but
because there are so many that could fall into good situations. Due to
the thin crop of WRs and QBs, 2008 is a RB year. I project that a ten-team
first round will consist of 9 RBs and 1 QB (Ryan). That's not to say that
this year's backs aren't talented ... but each back has something that
is bust-worthy to be considered.
Your first round probably looks something like this:
1. Darren McFadden
2. Rashard Mendenhall
3. Jonathan Stewart
4. Felix Jones
5. Ray Rice
6. Kevin Smith
7. Jamal Charles
8. Matt Forte'
9. Matt Ryan
10. Chris Johnson
As noted, 4-10 will be highly variable based on drafted situation. Secondarily,
Matt Ryan could go as high as #4 depending on team need in your league.
That would make your second round something like this:
11. Brian Brohm
12. Joe Flacco
13. Devin Thomas
14. Desean Jackson
15. Limas Sweed
16. Tashard Choice
17. James Hardy
18. Chad Henne
19. Steve Slaton
20. TE
Again, highly variable and dependent on situation. But as you can see,
RBs will be front loaded.
If you are looking for defenders, this is not a great year. Every year
there is normally a few LBs that emerge on the scene, but this year's
rookies are less than ideal. Jerod Mayo, Keith Rivers and Dan Connor are
your inside LBs to take note of in 2008, but none of them are certain
MLB selections. But, ones to watch nonetheless.
The TE grouping has value this year but not value that vaults any of them
into a top 15 selection in my mind. One TE will most likely come off your
board before pick 20 but don't feel that you need to rush into a TE pick
for that reason.
Plenty of wildcards and suspense in this upcoming draft and this is the
first time in a few years that rounds 2-4 will be as exciting as round
1.
As this entry has run long, I will cut it off here and will make a separate
entry for action around the NFL that you will want to stay abreast of.
One final note about the upcoming draft. In my main dynasty league,
which is VERY competitive, we begin our rookie draft with the first pick
in the NFL draft. There is no official time clock but the action usually
begins quickly and runs for a good two to three weeks. To give you all
an edge, I will be updating the site with our draft results so you can
gauge for yourself the talent as it is selected.
Sunday, Mar. 16
As things begin to wind down in the month prior to the draft,
just enough newsworthy notes continue to trickle out
of the NFL to keep things interesting.
On the draft front, not a lot has changed. A lot of debate on the status
of this year's quarterback class continues with some saying that there
isn't a hands-down first round pick, with others believing that there
are at least two first round worthy players in Matt Ryan and Brian Brohm.
In the time since my last update, word out of Atlanta seems to be that
the Falcons are seriously considering passing on Matt Ryan at the top
of the first round to, instead, address the QB position with their first
pick in the second round. While that may be possible, it sounds much more
like a team that desires to create trade interest at the top. At this
point, I just do not believe that Atlanta has the luxury of playing games
with their QB position.
Staying on the topic of Matt Ryan, word out of the Dolphin camp is that
Parcells does not believe that John Beck represents the future at the
position and that he is believed to be strongly considering Ryan with
the first pick. Again, until that pick is made, consider this more pre-draft
hooey.
Darren McFadden continues to receive mixed character reviews and I have now seen the first mock draft that doesn't include DMc in the top 10. I just don't see that being the case and still fully expect McFadden to be selected in the top 5 (most likely the top 4) selections. That doesn't mean that he will go to the teams currently slotted at those positions today but I do not see him slipping past #5.
Staying on the topic of RBs, Ray Rice continues to be the benefactor
of further whispers about his upside. I have read multiple reports that
Ray Rice is this year's exception to the size concerns normally afforded
to smaller than desired backs. And as I have said before, after watching
a fair amount of tape on Rice, I tend to agree.
Virtually no agreement can be found on this year's wide receiver class.
And like the argument for this year's QBs, more than one analyst believes
that there is not a true first rounder in the bunch. As of this writing
however, Limas Sweed and Malcolm Kelly seem to be appearing at the top
of lists more often than not, with the trio of Desean Jackson, Devin Thomas
and James Hardy gaining ground. Once disappointing (at the combine) Mario
Manningham redeemed himself at his pro day, running his 40 in the mid
4.40s.
On the free agent front, a number of noteworthy events have taken place
in the last couple of days.
Most noteworthy is that DET RB Kevin Jones was released outright in a
surprising move. No trade, no discussion of a lesser salary, just outright
released ... proving that Matt Millen continues to fly by the seat of
his pants and with blinders on. I've got $100 on Millen not making it
to the 2009 draft.
I have heard numbers as high as sixteen relating to how many teams have
shown interest in the oft-injured Jones. On the DLF board, readers are
mixed in what Jones has to offer any other team. For myself, I like what
Jones has to offer, outside of his continual injuries. Jones is a hard
worker and is ahead in his rehab, or so it is said. When healthy, Jones
has a shifty power-run style and while not highly elusive at the point,
he can make people miss and run over those that don't. Detroit has not
had a respectable front five for many years and, while this is not responsible
for Jones's injuries, it most certainly has limited his success. Then,
to make matters worse the RB killer Mike Martz arrived on the scene to
finish off any hope of productivity for Jones. In the right situation
and with a little luck, Jones can still carry the load for a team, but
will probably share the load for 2008. Philly seems to have some interest
in adding Jones but my money is on CHI, as they have a need but too many
other needs to add a RB with a high pick come the NFL draft.
Bryant Johnson landed in San Francisco, which was somewhat of a surprise
given that they were late to the party. While some believe that this reduces
Johnson's value, most see this is as a significant upgrade as the 9'ers
offense now rolls through aforementioned Mike Martz. Further upgrading
his value, Darrell Jackson was immediately released making Johnson either
the #1 or #3 depending on what you believe will occur. It looks as if
the starting wide outs will be Bruce and Johnson with Battle coming out
of the slot. This will be Johnson's first starting gig and the former
first round pick with good size, speed and hands will have an opportunity
to be an impact player out of the gate. The precision routes that Martz
requires could be a tall order for Johnson, but as a veteran receiver,
odds appear to be in his favor. Less inspiring is the QB situation which
leaves much to be desired. Johnson won't likely bring much trade value
in fantasy leagues at this juncture but a strong 2008 campaing could make
him a valuable assett as a WR2 or WR3. He is a good buy low candidate.
Tampa Bay continues to stash running backs like a squirrel stashes nuts,
leading most to believe that they will use a multiple back attack, not
relying on Earnest Graham, one of last year's pleasant surprises. The
big question mark surrounds Cadillac Williams who promises to be playing
by mid-year, if not sooner. What else is he supposed to say "I think
I might be done"?
I continue to be flummoxed by the lack of movement by the Titans. Vince
Young had a horrific sophomore performance after showing so much promise
in the second half of 2006. It was very evident that Vince had no elite
playmakers to throw to and, furthermore, due to this fact, could not run
effectively either. I expected the Titans to be quite active in free agency,
perhaps with additions of Berrian, Stallworth or Johnson ... or a combination
of one or more to bring a measure of respect to their passing game. Without
a significant passing game, LBs can play closer to the line to keep VY
behind the line of scrimmage. Young just does not have the skills necessary
yet to put game the game upon his shoulders. While this may come in time,
the future is now for the Titans. And with the high bust likelihood of
WRs out of the draft, 2008 looks to be another disappointing year. To
their credit, Crumpler was added which will add at least one new dimension...
if his knee remains healthy.
So coaches, this is the time to move those draft picks if you
are looking for talent but coaches looking for picks should wait, if at
all possible, until after the NFL draft to acquire picks. As will happen
again this year, the draft will drop the value of picks a good measure
when highly touted players are selected into less than ideal situations.
Stay patient, just another 41 days.
Thursday, Mar. 12
News is getting scarce across the NFL landscape.
On the free agent front, Drew Carter falls into the Black Hole, literally.
This, once promising, receiver will fall off the radar in Oakland save
some miracle that finds Oakland with a passing attack. And I very much
doubt that a 2nd year rookie QB, Javon Walker and Drew Carter will have
opposing defenses shaking in fear.
Free agent receiver Bryant Johnson is still teamless and there appears
to be few takers for the, once, highly coveted wideout. Johnson was likely
waiting for the Fitzgerald affair to be completed in the hopes of possibly
returning to Arizona but with Fitz now locked in with the Cardinals, Bryant's
choices are few and far between. The Bucs appear to be the most interested
but the Redskins, Bills and even the Titans could still be possibilities.
Speaking of the Titans, they have reunited with Justin McCareins. McCareins
should be penciled in as a starter next to Roydell Williams or Justing
Gage, but on a team with multiple #2 receivers and not true #1, anything
is possible.
In draft news, top RB prospect Jonathan Stewart is proving why many, including
myself, have him ranked as the #3 back in this year's draft after the
news broke today that a lingering toe injury will likely result in surgery,
perhaps shelving the young rusher for 6+ months. Stewart's knock has been
the nagging injury and never having to carry the load and this recent
news will not help his draft stock. I still expect him to be selected
on or before pick #18 but there are no guarantees in this business, just
ask Brady Quinn or Aaron Rodgers.
Arguably the top WR in the draft, Malcolm Kelly again skipped
a workout due to a lingering injury ... putting off scouts yet once again.
It's one thing to be sure about one's health, but with each instance,
questions will grow as to the character of the player. His individual
workout is now to take place on April 9th.
Reviewing draft possibilities again, it sure seems that despite all the
negative hype surrounding Darren McFadden, he is sure to be highly coveted
and to be selected within the top 4 selections. Watching tape again of
DMc, it is hard to watch and not see extreme potential at the next level.
I'm still concerned with his lower body bulk, or lack of it, but he sure
looks the part. I believe some team is going to be very happy after selecting
him.
I'm still listing Ray Rice as my most intriguing RB prospect. I still
am not sure what to make of him but in watching tape, he does possess
phenomenal instincts and vision and runs much larger than his size. While
his only 5'8", his running style, quickness and power quickly make
you forget his less than ideal size. In fantasy drafts, I could see Rice
going as low as #9 or #10 based on the team needs or coaching philosophy.
Myself being a coach that usually writes off smaller backs, I do remain
intrigued with Rice. Intrigued enough to select him in the 2nd half of
the first round? ...I'm not sure, but with a number of interesting picks
between #5 and #10, plenty remains to be decided.
Revisiting articles from previous years, one of the series that has always
received good reviews has been my "Inside the Numbers" series
where I break down positions related to their NFL draft selection and
their respective fantasy output. Look for my first entry for 2008 soon,
dealing with WRs. Unlike previous years, I will be keeping the article
shorter and emphasizing the numbers.
If you have an idea for an article, have a burning question or have general
input, make sure to let us know in the forum and I will be sure to speak
to it in the blog.
Sunday, Mar. 9
Not many players of note remaining on the free agent wire. Bryant Johnson remains unsigned and with the Larry Fitzgerald situation near critical mass, it is VERY possible that Johnson resigns with Arizona at the same time Fitz is shipped off to Philly. Should that happen, I would upgrade Fitz slightly as he would be the hands-down #1 WR on the receiving end of McNabb ... for as long as McNabb stays an Eagle. That said, without a good #1 complement, Fitz's numbers would be less than guaranteed week over week.
Bryant Johnson staying in Arizona would get a nice upgrade, but don't
get too excited, it's Bryant Johnson. He has yet to live up to his mid
first round selection but he does have the size and talent to make a mid-career
impact.
The talk of late is that McFadden continues to slide, if you choose to
listen to the underground talk from coaches and GMs. While this may be
true, I put zero, read that as absolutely none, trust in those rumors.
And you should as well. If I recall correctly, year 2007 was the Chinese
year of the Peterson. And coming off that year, few teams in need can
afford to pass up that sort of impact. Many now believe that DMc will
fall to the Jets at #6, but I just don't see that happening this year.
The Raiders, Dolphins and even the Chiefs have far more needs than can
be filled with a single high first round pick. I would not be surprised
to see a block buster trade or two at the top of the round. But mark my
words, regardless of the trade scenarios ... DMc will not go #6 to the
Jets. The Raiders may have no other choice than to take him and then immediately
search the couches in the locker rooms for spare change in the amount
of $25-$30 million.
And I am still receiving questions regarding the rookie WRs this year.
There is NOT a Calvin Johnson among this group, not a WR that will/should
go in the top 10. BUF would seem to be the best fit for the first receiver
off the board and Malcolm Kelly would make the most sense as a complement
to Lee Evans on the outside and the shifty Roscoe Parrish in the slot.
But regardless of the drafted situations, WR draft analysis of the previous
decade of drafts shows that drafting a WR, outside of the top 5 (in the
NFL draft) is a losing proposition. There are just no metrics that can
seemingly be used to show that drafting one even approaches 50/50. In
all likelihood, history shows that a drafted WR will bust ... unless he
was chosen as the first WR off the board and within the first few NFL
picks.
That doesn't mean that you should not draft a WR but if this is an area
of need for your team, I highly suggest trading away lesser players or
picks to acquire known talent.
One last note. Julius Jones has signed a somewhat telling deal to now
play for the Seahawks. This spells the end of the road for Alexander,
only two years removed as the NFL MVP. Look for Alexander to be moved
for a mid round selection (HOU, PIT, CAR) or released outright in the
coming months. For Maurice Morris, who until this weekend saw his value
rising, his value returns to bench status. Jones, however, gets a significant
boost in value as will be seen on our upcoming rankings. Seattle should
feed him the ball as their primary runner often enough to make Jones a
quality RB2, and perhaps even a low-end RB1 if Alexander is released.
Don't rush to overpay just yet however.
Wednesday, Mar. 5
The award for the "you've got to be kidding me?" deal goes to
none other that the Oakland Raiders who secure none other than Javon Walker
for an absurd $55M over six years, with a $16M signing bonus. The deal
is front loaded with $27M through the first three years and it virtually
ensures that Walker will retire a Raider. This is truly an absurd figure
to be dropping on the, once, stud that hasn't had a noteworthy season
in some time. Furthermore, Walker's knee is said to be declining rapidly.
Perhaps owner Al Davis knew he had lost out on other free agents and felt
that Walker was his last shot at landing a noteworthy player. Seems to
me to be more of a shot at Shanahan than logic. The irony here is that
the laughs heard are far louder out of Denver.
In other high profile news, Marty Booker is back with the Bears, now giving
them a total of two #2 WRs. The odd man out still appears to be Bryant
Johnson who is rumored still to be going to Buffalo or perhaps Washington.
It is like that Johnson will get his deal within the next couple of days.
With free agency in the books, at least in all ways meaningful, more
shaping of the draft is taking place and we can now start thinking in
terms of a mock draft potentially. I haven't decided if I will again do
a mock draft although my mocks of recent years have been on par with the
"experts".
Mock aside, lets look at some of the scenarios:
Once again, RBs and QBs look to be sliding. In fact, WRs are sliding as well but seem to be holding up a bit better than the aforementioned two. Four RBs still seem to be probably in the first round: McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart and Jones. I would not be surprised to see Jones slip out of the first round, or even Chris Johnson leap frog him, be it in the first round or second.
McFadden continues to slip as RBs tend to do. At this point, the Raiders
would have to be considered the favorites to land him as Davis will have
a hard time passing on that type of talent. I do believe they have greater
need however and I suspect, just a hunch here, that they will allow McFadden
to fall. Should DmC fall, he will not fall past the Jets.
I still believe that Mendenhall will be the 2nd back off the board and
will be selected by Carolina (** see below), a team that needs a big back.
Should Caroline go a different route, the Bears, Lions and Cardinals all
pick consecutively behind the Panthers and I suspect that both Mendenhall
and Stewart will both be taken in this range. For the record, Carolina
seems to be a lock for Mendenhall or Stewart at 13 and I expect the Bears
to pass on a RB this time around. The Lions are an interesting selection
at 15 and could select Stewart (or Mendenhall) but they have huge needs
on the defensive side of the ball. Stewart will go to Arizona at 16.
** The wild card in this draft that no one has mentioned yet, that can,
and very well could, change things up is the presence of Matt Forte. Not
a truly dynamic runner, Forte fits the mold of back that teams like Atlanta
(before the Turner acquisition), Carolina, Arizona and Seattle will be
looking for. It would be all too easy for Carolina or Arizona to bypass
a first round back and draft Forte in the 2nd round, albeit earlier than
perhaps he should be. The sheer number of backs in this draft ensure that
most teams in need can take a back in rounds two through four and still
get production. Mike Hart figures to be a late third or fourth round back
and looks to be very ready for the NFL.
The big loser through all of this are the Texans at who need a back badly.
Ahman Green is supposedly at 100% but 100% of 50% is still 50% and even
ex-Shanny-student, and now head coach, Gary Kubiak won't be able to work
the Denver backfield magic in Houston with the current players. Houston
will look to the offensive line or defensive backfield unless one of the
two big backs falls to them.
With the depth of the 2nd and 3rd tier backs in this draft, many teams
with RB need will forego a first round selection and look to add backs
such as Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte,
Steve Slaton and even Mike Hart in later rounds. For you draft nuts that
treat the NFL draft like opening day Sunday (yes, that would be me), we
finally have a noteworthy 2nd and 3rd rounds this year.
I cannot stress enough this fact, even as I know many will disagree with
me ... in fantasy football, every year the value of draft picks will decrease
AFTER the draft. This means if you are looking to add a pick, wait until
after the draft. If you are looking to move a pick, move it before the
draft.
The 2008 draft is three deep, a very solid three. But after that, picks
#4 through, possibly, #9 will be nearly equal in value if you are looking
for a RB. That is based on talent ... not drafted situation. Obviously,
good situations will favor certain backs but coaches will favor situations
over talent in most cases. This allows coaches with later first round
picks to end up with better talent and, also, a longer wait before production
is seen. But in that longer wait, often times better results are had.
Toss in the likes of Matt Ryan as a starter in Miami or Atlanta and you
have a relatively nice fantasy first round. It seems likely that the first
WR will not leave the board until pick #12, give our take one position.
The QB class is largely mediocre and after Matt Ryan who will most likely
be selected in fantasy drafts between position 7 and 10, the next three
slingers: Brohm, Flacco and Henne appear to be destined for the teens.
Toss in Woodson as the fifth QB off the board and one will most likely
see the 20s in your fantasy draft.
WRs, if you have followed my draft history articles from previous years,
are a crap shoot almost across the board. Except in the instance where
a WR is taken within the first few NFL picks, WRs have a tremendously
high bust rate. Forecasting which WR is the next top 10 fantasy producer
is about as easy as telling which no-name QB is the next Tom Brady. It
just can't be done with any degree of success. My advice on WRs is to
pass on them unless you have a significant need for one. Even then, it
is far more advantageous to allow another team to take the risk with the
pick. If you are in the market for a WR, trade your 2nd round selection
(or late first) for an up and coming producer or established 2nd tier
receiver. Every league has those coaches that over value draft picks and
under value depth WRs.
I still believe Malcolm Kelly is the best WR of the class with Limas Sweed
a close second. Lingering injuries always worry me and Sweed has been
battling that wrist for 6 mos. now. If small receivers are your thing,
then watch Desean Jackson's drafted situation closely. While I am not
high on small WRs, Jackson is electric with the ball in his hands.
Tuesday, Mar. 4
The free agency period is starting to wind down now with Randy
Moss resigning with the Patriots, something that both parties needed.
And kudos to Mr. Moss for not sticking it to the Patriots and taking less
money to stay where he is happy.
On the topic of being greedy, Larry Fitzgerald does not seem to be helping
his image any as Arizona continues to be handcuffed by his enormous salary
in 2008, that MUST be restructured soon. Without relief, Arizona has virtually
no leverage to sign free agents to make the team better. Fitzgerald, while
largely innocent, doesn't seem to be in any hurry to bring his team relief
all the while he says he loves the Cardinal organization.
That is just one example of why I feel the Cardinals have perhaps one
of the worst front offices in the league.
Bryant Johnson has yet to sign but it looks like it is coming down to
the Bills or the Redskins. The Bills are in need of a big receiver opposite
to Lee Evans, which would move Parrish permanently to the slot. I would
devalue Johnson a bit in this move as the weather in Buffalo late in the
year is terrible and their QB situation, while looking up, is just a notch
above terrible.
I have been following a growing trend in the NFL over the last couple
of years, as most fantasy owner have as well, that really was evident
last year: True #1 RBs are on the decline.
Most savvy owners begin putting together their wish list as soon as the
new fantasy season begins. As part of the due diligence, each owner must
do his/her own ranking list early on. When doing my list over the past
few months, I have noted that true carry-the-load RBs that I would trade
for has diminished significantly. Even emerging RBs like Marion Barber
don't rate highly on my list because of the growing RBBC movement. RBBC
is nothing new but has really shown its teeth in the past year and it
has grown into a true epidemic.
If you are in a PPR league, this pattern is even more visible. While 3rd
down backs often times are on par with their power back teammates, the
true #1 or even #2 WR on their respective teams have been outscoring both
backs. Think of it this way. In a PPR system, even a WR getting 6 receptions,
regardless of yardage, forces a RB to run for 60+ yards (in a standard
scoring system) to match just the reception points of the WR. While the
top tier of RBs hold their value for the most part, this trend is diminishing
the value of the remaining field of backs. After the top 6-7 backs, I
just don't have much interest in the rest ... at least compared to the
higher tier WRs. More later on this subject .....
Monday, Mar. 3
Things are beginning to take shape in the NFL, just shy of two
months before the NFL draft.
The hottest name on the free agent market, Michael Turner, lands in Atlanta,
sending the hopes of Jerrious Norwood owners into the
toilet, as it now appears Norwood will fulfill his situational role duties
for the next couple of years at least.
On the subject of Turner, I am not ready (as some on our board are) to
annoint him with a low #1 RB or even as a high #2 until he produces. But
if you are looking to trade him, certainly you place that value on him.
Too many good looking young backs move to new teams and never pan out.
And the ATL offensive line is woefully inadequate right now.
Vince Young owners, looking for VY to get a few good men to throw to have
to be happy about TE Crumpler signing early this AM. While not the threat
he used to be, Crumpler can still stretch the field, if his knee holds
up, and should immediately upgrade their passing offense. The Titans still
need to add at least one, and probably two, WRs to that offense to give
more options. At this juncture, the Titans have to be hoping for Malcolm
Kelly or Limas Sweed to fall to them, but it is starting to look like
both Kelly and Sweed could be gone by their pick. Desean Jackson would
be a decent fit as well given their needs.
FA Bernard Berrian signs for big dollars in Minnesota, giving the Vikes
a nice deep threat, but there is no way that Berrian is worth those dollars
given his production. And expecting him to put up numbers with Tarvaris
Jackson is even more of a stretch. But a starting lineup of Berrian and
Sidney Rice does provide upside ... now with Troy Williamson signing with
Jax. Just what is Jacksonville thinking?
On the topic of "What are they thinking?", why are the Patriots
playing games with Randy Moss? Sometimes an organization gets a bit too
full of themselves and this may be the case with New England now.
Stallworth heading to the Browns is a nice upgrade as well giving Derek
Anderson's value a bit of a boost. The Browns locked up D.A. with decent
money for a QB with such a short resume'. Browns could still trade Brady
Quinn as it doesn't appear that they are opening it up for true competition.
Monday, Feb. 25
Coming out of the weekend's tryouts, I was asked on a couple
of occasions, "whaddya think about the RBs?". Seems like simple
enough of a question, but as usual, it isn't.
First thing I learned from this year's combine, which has pretty much
been the case in past years as well ... I need a life. But as this is
the one that I have, and have chosen, so be it. Waking up Sunday AM with
the though of the skill positions taking the field was akin to waking
up on Sunday morning of week 1. You all know the feeling I'm sure?
It safe to say now that the RB field is beginning to take shape, at least
to some degree. We all always have workout warriors and surprises and
this year will be no different than previous years in that drafted situation
will largely dictate the true value of many of these players. Case in
point, Jamaal Charles or Kevin Smith any better than Antonio Pittman of
last year? Perhaps, but as was the case with Pittman, the drafted situation
can mean all the difference between getting meaningful touches or getting
cut as a 3rd round selection in a crowded backfield. And it WILL happen
again this year again.
For those of you looking to trade draft picks, do so BEFORE the draft,
not after. Every year, the value of draft picks goes the way of the dinosaurs
as marginally good players go to bad situations. If you are looking to
acquire picks, it is much better to wait until after the NFL draft ...
in most cases.
Looking at the RBs this year in loose order, we find a relatively broad
field, but still top loaded. The top tier of backs is three deep:
1. Darren McFadden
2. Rashard Mendenhall
3. Jonathan Stewart
You can argue #2 and #3 if you like but I'm secure in this positioning
in that I like Mendenhall's intangibles more than Stewart's, and I watched
Stewart often as I am in Duck country and followed him out of high school
(yes, I do need a life).
I'm calling the 2nd tier a tier of one:
4. Felix Jones
I was a bit disappointed with his speed and a bit with his size, but he
has the frame to add 10-15 pounds and his speed is adequate.
The third tier is a deep tier of "could be's" if given the right
situation:
5. Kevin Smith
6. Chris Johnson
7. Jamaal Charles
8. Matt Forte
9. Ray Rice
I will not complain if you mix and match rankings with the names here
as they are very close in what they could offer at the NFL level. Smith
has good size but has a thin base and has a lot of question marks at the
next level. I have him ranked nearly dead even with Charles who needs
to get bigger and learn how to hang onto the football. Matt Forte is intriguing
but needs the right situation in that there isn't much dynamic about him
... he's a bit like Kolby Smith of 2007, but bigger.
What is it about Ray Rice that intrigues me. He is great in between the
tackles but at 5'8", I just have a hard time believing that he is
another MJD. Backs like MJD are so few and far in between. But Rice has
great character a great motor and great instincts and vision ... most
believe he is going to be successful. So, given that my gut won't allow
me to drop him to the next tier, I'm keeping him there.
The fourth tier consists of:
10. Steve Slaton
11. Tashard Choice
12. Mike Hart
13. Chad Simpson
I wanted to rank Slaton higher but just couldn't ... not without seeing
where he goes first. Choice is another one of those backs that did not
hurt himself at all, has good size but just doesn't do any one thing really
well. Mike Hart had a bad day running the sprint, but showed good agility
in the three cone drills. Still, with that size and speed, it is going
to be a situational role for him.
Chad Simpson was a nice surprise for me. As I mentioned earlier, I was
constantly impressed with him. And at 5'8" and 216 pounds, he does
resemble MJD and showed very well in most drills. Keep an eye peeled on
his situation, I feel he is rising.
In wrapping up, this is one of those drafts that has a lot to offer but
with a lot of risk. For fantasy drafts, especially with a somewhat weak
or uninspiring WR and QB group, this draft is really 3, maybe 4, deep.
Given this analysis I feel that pick 4 or 5, is as good potentially as
pick #8 or maybe even #9. Pay attention to your handcuffs and be prepared
to draft the better back as others go for players that will see he field
sooner.
Free agency starts on Friday and there will be a lot going on it would
seem.
In today's news, it has been reported that Deshaun Foster
will be the new backup to Frank Gore in SF (yuck). Roy Williams
will be staying in DET. Troy Williamson will be playing
for the Jaguars, reunited with one Mike "Meathead" Tice and
Derek Anderson and the Browns are a mere 3 years and about $40M
off in getting a deal done.
Speaking of Derek Anderson, this is where I begin to question the wisdom of some players. You're Derek Anderson, getting drafted in the 6th round and being cut from your first NFL team. You catch on in CLE, lose the starting QB battle and yet get an opportunity behind a great O-line. You help the team exceed expectations on the wings of the 2nd easiest schedule in 2007, but lose 1/2 the fans along the way. Then, in the off-season, you allow your agent to try and pawn you off as Tony Romo, looking for the same money?!?!?!?
Derek, you're lucky to be in the league ... I watched you for a couple of years and you have size and strength and have been blessed thus far in your career, against all odds. Take the 3 years and the $10-$12M guaranteed as it is money from heaven, and beat out Quinn in 2008. Why risk less money in the high tender and potentially be out in the cold as quickly as you rose to stardom? Take the 3 year money, guarantee your future retirement and play for your next contract; you will still be young. Give me a call, I'll broker the deal for you and represent your best interest.
Sunday, Feb. 24
The action on Sunday was fast and furious and was telling on many levels. I must admit that at one point I was telling one of my partners here at DLF that I would be downgrading the RB class to a decent degree based on what I saw. But after going back and re-reviewing my notes and performance expectations, I find that the damage is only about half as bad as originally thought.
The story of the day was no other than Darren McFadden,
who stole the show with what was initially a 4.27 40 time. In the end,
his official time was cut back to 4.33, still above expectations. Mike
Mayock continues to rate Rashard Mendenhall above DMc
based on his lower body size and fumbling issues, both of which I do agree
with. The fumbling issues aside, the lower body size is noteworthy but
I don't think it will affect his draft status much at all. With Adrian
Peterson stealing the show last year, and showing six other teams that
they were unwise, I think you can expect that DMc will hear his name called
very early ... perhaps first. Dallas owner Jerry Jones was said to have
immediately left the building after seeing DMc run. We will see what comes
of that, but there is renewed talk of the Boys sending both first round
picks AND the rights to Marion Barber to the Dolphins for the first pick.
I think that is far too much compensation for a single back like McFadden,
but Jerry Jones is said to be enamored with DMc and has been for a long
while.
Rashard Mendenhall impressed with a very fast 4.45 forty
considering his size and Jonathan Stewart clocked in
with an official 4.48. All things being not equal, what I saw today was
enough for me to rate Mendenhall over Stewart as the #2 back in the draft.
I will blow my own horn here by saying that I was touting Mendenhall early
on before the networks were saying anything about him. I had heard that
he had great long speed but in the games I watched, I just didn't see
it ... save one long run vs. USC. But today he showed what I needed to
see. Note that living in the Pacific NW, I have followed Stewart since
he was the top high school RB in Washington before signing to play for
Oregon. I haven't seen the carry-the-load ability yet from Stewart nor
have I seen that "dynamic" factor that I look for in future
NFL stars. Stewart is a specimen for sure and a great kid and his star
should be bright at the next level, but for now, he will be #3 on my RB
list.
The fastest time was turned in by one Chris Johnson,
who officially clocked in at a blistering 4.24. My personal hope was that
Johnson would weigh in at over 200 lbs. but his measurements were 5'10"
and 197 pounds, adequate but not stellar. Furthermore, it doesn't appear
to me that Johnson has a frame to add significant weight, but even 10-15
pounds would be substantial. The Seahawks are said to be intrigued by
Johnson but I doubt he will be a first round selection and he will be
hard pressed to be an every down back at that size.
Backs that found their stock sliding by the end of the day were Mike
Hart, Ryan Torain and perhaps even Felix
Jones, who all turned in less than ideal 40 times. Hart ran a
dismal 4.67, Torain a 4.64 and Jones came in at 4.47 ... slower than the
low 4.3s that were expected from him. Jones still looked the part although
he did measure in a hair over 5'10" and 207 pounds. Jones does seem
to have a fram that would easily carry another 10-15 pounds but it would
seem that his first gig will be as a change of pace or 3rd down back ...
thus, reducing his ffb value in his early years. As for Hart and Torain,
there wasn't much impressive to build on after the 40 times were made
official.
Junior backs Kevin Smith and Jamaal Charles
held their respective positions well by running their 40s at 4.43 and
4.38 respectively. Both looked a little light on the frame but were shifty
with fluid hips and enough bulk to be considered in round 2, perhaps early
3rd.
Matt Forte ran a better than expected 4.46 and held onto the
momentum he has had since the senior bowl.
Many eyes were on Steve Slaton, especially in the 40. He ran a 4.44 but the bigger issue was that he measured in at 5'9" and 197 pounds. My hope was that he was closer to 5'11" and that he would be in the 200-205 range weight wise. There has been a lot of talk about his declining performance as he added weight and I think it is safe to say that he won't hear his name called until the 3rd or early 4th round.
Ray Rice is a back I keep going back and forth on. His 40 time was better than expected at 4.44 and he did look the part of a NFL back. But at 5'8" and 199 pounds, the odds would be stacked against him at being an every down back. He has good leg size, is built well and he performed well across the board. I expected a better 20 yard shuttle time out of him, but for his size ... he still performed well. I guess I will have to wait to see his drafted situation.
One other noteworthy performance was that of Chad Simpson
out of Oregon St. Every time I turned around, I was seeing a drill and
found myself saying "who was that?". And nearly every time,
it was Simpson. He ran a 4.42 40 and looks a lot like Ray Rice in size.
In fact he checked in at 5'8" but at 217 pounds (think Maurice Jones
Drew). He may be someone to watch as he had a dynamic quality about him.
The Quarterback competition was only so-so with few surprises. All the
top QBs looked good, with the exception of Woodson who
was present but did not work out. Flacco secured a high
grade by showing well, displaying a great arm, good velocity and an overall
presence. I was a disappointed on two levels with Brian Brohm.
Firstly, he measured in smaller than I expected at 6'2 3/4". Not
horrible but a good inch and half smaller than I expected. Secondly, I
didn't see the arm I was hoping to see. He didn't lead receivers well
and was underthrowing many balls. Flacco has taken over the #2 position
in my mind after Matt Ryan. Speaking of Ryan, he didn't
excite me any with his performance but he didn't disappoint either ...
but he only ran the 40.
The award for "best performance for a guy that really needed it"
goes to Colt Brennan who showed very well on Sunday.
Size was better than expected and he showed decent mechanics and, surprisingly,
his arm looked good enough ... not great. But he may have bought himself
a round or two. Being labeled an "ass" by those that interview
you, though, is never good.
The "out of nowhere" aware goes to Josh Johnson who
turned heads with an impressive 4.55 40 and a surprisingly live arm. He
looked a little thin at 217 and 6'2 1/2", but he certainly has upside.
Keep tracking of his drafted situation, he does have skills.
Wide receivers were much like the QBs today, just not a lot to hang your
hat on. The "oops" award goes to Mario Manningham
who ran a poor 40, clocking in at 4.59, much slower than expected and
probably dropping him out of the first round.
If you know me and my assessment skills any, you know that I look for
a "dynamic" presence in wide receivers ... something that stands
out. There weren't many performances like that today. James Hardy
and Limas Sweed were the closest to anything dynamic.
Both with good size, and both running impressively in the 4.46 neighborhood.
Given the size of both of these receivers, their 40 times really are noteworthy.
For what it is worth, Sweed caught the ball well, showing no sign of his
injured wrist.
Desean Jackson ran a blistering 4.35 40 and probably
secured himself as one of the first 2-3 WRs off the board. Many scouts,
coaches and GM's will have to consider his size, however, at 5'9 1/2"
and 169 pounds. I will say though that he seemed bigger and was definitely
fluid and fast.
Jordy Nelson improved his stock immensely showing good
size and speed, running a sub 4.50 40 and displaying good hands. He would
seem to be this year's Anthony Gonzalez, but a bit more obscure.
Well, that's a wrap for today. Tomorrow I will chime in with some additional thoughts and will keep it churning through the draft in order to keep you abreast of those rising and falling. Don't be shocked if we change the format of the "blog" though to a more true format.
Saturday, Feb. 23
Not a lot to gather from today except that there were a couple notable TEs that were affected from today's drills. Notre Dame TE John Carlson turned in two disappointing 40 times in the 4.9s which will hurt his stock.
Fred Davis, whom many believe is the top TE prospect, did not run and looked rusty after dropping multiple balls in the out and up drill and the gauntlet. As the day went on, he sharpened up and showed good skill catching the ball away from his body.
By far, the most impressive performance was turned in by Dustin Keller. The smaller TE showed great leaping ability and good speed, running the 40 in the low 4.5s. Catching the ball, Keller showed great hand eye coordination not allowing many balls to get to his body. He, and his large hands, are drawing a lot of attention.
Kentucky TE, Jacob Tamme, helped himself by running a 40 in the high 4.5s and did a nice job at the individual stations as well.
The weights and measures are in on the RBs and QBs and there were some interesting results. In fact, I was somewhat disappointed on a few fronts and will be downgrading the RB position selectively a bit further, pending my review of Sunday's results.
On the rumor front, things are starting to pick up. Larry Fitzgerald looks to be staying in Arizona as they are said to be offering to make him the highest paid WR in the league. The only sticking point is that Fitz is looking for a shorter term deal (4 years) while the Cardinals want to lock him up for 6+.
The Bengals, if they are looking to trade Ocho, are making it difficult to do so as they are posturing as if they are planning to hang onto him. Personally, I don't see it ... I don't think they can bring him back. If they don't, upgrade Chris Henry, WR.
WR Roy Williams is on the block with Detroit only asking a 2nd rounder in return this year ... or even an early round pick in 2009. Jax, New Orleans, Tennessee and Tampa are rumored to be interested. Tennessee soarly needs to be spend some of their cash to help out Vince Young. I'm not sure that Williams is the answer there however.
On the interview front, early indications that RB Mike Hart,
RB Jonathan Stewart and LB Dan Connor
are highly impressing coaches and scouts during interviews. RB Jamaal
Charles has not impressed and is sliding.
Next update will be Sunday PM where I will review the performances
of the skill positions.
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