Future Watch
Posted: 11/24/07
Future Watch: 2008– RBs
By this point in the season, many are gauging their playoff match-ups while others have turned their focus to the 2008 draft, also known as the “McFadden Lottery.”
This is an interesting looking year when eyeing the skill positions. In my view, 2008 is one of the weakest years in some time when it comes to the WR position. The QB position is stronger than average, with three that are all vying to be the first off the board and a tight race it is, too.
In the first of our three part series, we turn our attention to the running backs of 2008.
When looking at the senior class, there is little to be excited about, but enough to provide some degree of opportunity. However, in contrast to this year’s group of seniors, the junior class is shaping up to be special. There is little (no) doubt that the first name to be called in a large majority of fantasy drafts will be Darren McFadden, but after DMC, there are a number of players that have a high degree of talent and potential. Following is a short discussion on each of these backs, in order.
Such things as late season injury, combine performance or a return to school will certainly affect the depth of the pool, but that won’t stop us from jumping in right now. On to the list:
1. Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Height: 6’2” Weight: 205
Stud. As close to a sure thing as you can get. He is a big, athletic back with all the intangibles and doesn’t run as high as Peterson does. And get this, many early mock drafts have him going to the Patriots due to them holding San Francisco’s first round selection in the next draft. Sick.
2. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
Height: 5’11” Weight: 233
Stewart is an interesting back and most either love him or don’t want to touch him. He isn’t a true workhorse, but has the speed, size and style to be an every down back in the NFL. I followed Stewart when he was the #1 RB prep athlete out of northern Washington … and I bet Mike Holmgren has as well. Sadly for the Hawks, Stewart will likely be gone before they have a chance. I view Stewart as a distant #2 to DMC and as slightly untested, but he has what every NFL coach is looking for.
3. Felix Jones, Arkansas
Height: 6’0” Weight: 203
DMC light. Many like Jones as much as his teammate and he does have an exciting running style. He is shiftier than DMC, but I don’t believe he is faster than McFadden as most believe. I expect their 40 times to be nearly identical. What I like about Jones is his vision and his ability to see, hit and be through the hole very quickly. He isn’t powerful like McFadden, but he will be drafted very highly. There is little chance he drops out of the first round.
4. Steve Slaton, West Virginia
Height: 5’10” Weight: 196
Slaton has been compared to Reggie Bush, be that good or bad. He is a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball and is electric in the open field. While there are concerns about his size, NFL coaches won’t be able to pass on him for long and he should be taken in the first round. If Slaton can bulk up to 205+ before the combine, he will substantially increase his draft position. He is equally adept and catching the ball as he is running but blocking could be an issue for him at the next level. Much like Bush is finding out, the holes in the NFL are not nearly as big as they are in college and pure speed needs to be combined with physicality in order to be a productive RB. Slaton is an intriguing prospect and should be considered a high risk, high reward play.
5. Kevin Smith, Central Florida
Height: 6’1 Weight: 213
I have Smith ranked more highly than most. Take one look at this kid run with the combination of speed and balance and most questions will be answered. Smith has piled up yards and TDs in 2007 and could even slip into the first round if he has a good combine. He runs and catches well and he consistently posts noteworthy numbers, regardless of competition, whether it be 330 yards vs. UAB or 150 yards vs. Texas. I believe Smith could run a 40 in the low 4.40s and if he does, I could make a case for him being the 3rd RB off the board. I would like to see his ypc average climb over 6.0 but at 5.9 currently, I’m splitting hairs.
6. Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Height: 5’11 Weight: 225
Mendenhall’s stock has been rising all year and I am placing him just above Ray Rice of Rutgers because I favor larger backs. I have watched Mendenhall numerous times and have come away very impressed by his toughness and yards after first contact. He is said to have great speed but I can’t say that his speed is overly dynamic. If his combine performance comes within a few ticks of 4.45 he will be an early selection. My gut tells me that he will stay in school to raise his stock as a senior but, should he elect to declare, he will garner a fair amount of attention. A 6.2 ypc and nice hands will do that for a young back.
7. Ray Rice, Rutgers
Height: 5’9” Weight: 205
I’m willing to rate Rice this highly on the hope that he measured in as he is listed. When looking at Rice, I think he will have to stretch to be much more than 5’8” but he is built well and runs well behind his pads with good leverage. He is one of those smaller backs that could cast a new mold, but as a smaller player, he does contain a lot of risk. Not many backs not named MJD have the size to be an every down back, including blocking, but Rice does have the tenacity and instincts to make a difference. His falling ypc average of 5.1 shows that the wear and tear may be taking its toll on his smaller body and this will be a concern to a coaching staff.
8. Jamal Charles, Texas
Height: 6’1” Weight: 205
Firstly, I don’t believe Charles is 6’1”. I will be surprised if he measures more than 6’0” but I believe that would work in his favor. With his build and current weight, a smaller stature would be to his benefit in and out of the holes available in the NFL, not to mention the physical punishment. It is hard not to watch Charles and see real potential. He is a back that gets better with the more carries he receives and his surprising speed will attract attention at the combine. I would like to see more ability to catch the ball out of the backfield as he has not been heavily used in that manner, but there are no concerns about his ability to perform in this area. His ypc of 6.4 is indicative of his power and ability to get downhill quickly and a good combine could push him high into the second round. In my mind, I believe he is a lock to declare early.
9. Mike Hart, Michigan
Height: 5’9” Weight: 202
Our first senior registers in at #9. I recall watching both Hart and Peterson when they were freshman, thinking both were locks to be stars in the NFL. Hart is not tall at 5’9” but is a relatively thick 202. Hart’s big knock is his speed but if he can run a 4.45, he will drastically increase his draft stock. Hart has the ability to catch the ball well but wasn’t used often in that regard after his freshman year. He has been nicked up relatively often and has a lot of mileage on his legs as a senior, something that will certainly concern NFL teams. But there is no discounting his heart, character, leadership and determination. There are some players that just play larger than their size and Hart is a perfect example of that. His 5.3 ypc isn’t inspiring but he is perhaps the player with the largest range of draft possibility. With a good combine, Hart could potentially push himself into the bottom of the first round, but most likely will be a 2nd to early 3rd round selection.
10. Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech
Height: 6’1” Weight: 205
Choice has been a workhorse for Tech this year and his numbers have been consistently above par. He’s shifty for a bigger back but bounces a lot of runs to the outside. Still, with a body that will accept more weight, Choice has the potential to be an every down back in the NFL but will need to run tougher and bulk up. His 5.2 ypc should be higher given his size and ability.
11. James Davis, Clemson
Height: 5’11” Weight 205
Davis is an enigma. While not consistent, he does have the size and speed that are desired at the next level, or at least could with more emphasis on his lower body. He could run tougher than he does but tries to get to the outside too often where his impressive speed often pays dividends. He doesn’t appear to be an overly adept receiver but this is due more to the system he plays in … read that as he is largely untested.
Other Notables:
Ryan Torain, Arizona State
Height: 6’1” Weight: 215
Great size, but his season ending injury will hurt his draft stock.
Chris Johnson, East Carolina
Height: 5’11” Weight: 200
Flat out amazing speed, but is there anything else to go with it?
Allen Patrick, Oaklahoma
Height: 6’0 Weight: 101
Not measuring up to early expectations.
Justin Forsett, Cal
Height: 5’8 Weight: 196
Putting together a decent year, but just doesn’t look like a difference maker in the NFL.
Matt Forte, Tulane
Height: 6’1” Weight: 225
Having an incredible year. Runs hard and catches the ball well. Good
initial size, but he runs like he is 260 - stiff and without a lot of
wiggle. If he can display any speed at the combine, he will be your top
riser on draft day.