Keeper Conflict
Posted: 6/4/06Steve Smith vs. Larry Fitzgerald
In each installment of "Keeper Conflict," we ask our experts to examine two players in fantasy football to determine who is a dynasty keeper. In this installment we take a close look at Steve Smith of the Caroline Panthers and Larry Fitzgerald of the Arizona Cardinals.
Jeff Haverlack's Selection:
Larry Fitzgerald WR Ari
Age: 22 2005: 103/1409/10
Positives: Fitzgerald, in only his second year, posted numbers that earned him #2 overall WR in most scoring formats, behind only Steve Smith. At the age of 22, he is 6'3” and 224 lbs. of play making ability, especially in the red zone. Few cornerbacks, if any, can match his leaping ability, huge hands and ability to make the circus catch. While many will cite the arrival of Edgerrin James as reason to downgrade Fitzgerald, I expect this to actually boost his fantasy points if you play in a TD heavy format. His 103 catches and 1400+ yards represents a great year for first tier veterans, let alone a WR still learning the position and nuances of the NFL. With defenses having to play closer to the line of scrimmage, Fitzgerald should see increased looks in the red zone, boosting his TD totals to 12-14 while largely maintaining his receptions and yardage numbers. There arguably is no better young assembly of talent than in Arizona with Edge, Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Throw in a good looking rookie TE in Leonard Pope and this is an offense that should finally make a playoff run.
Negatives: Like many of our highlighted conflicts, one must look hard to find flaws, yet they always do exist. Though I expect Fitzgerald to slightly improve his fppg (fantasy points per game) average, one cannot overlook the fact that the Arizona offense is loaded with offensive skill position players. Will there be enough footballs to go around must be the question objective coaches ask. The 2005 season was an utter disaster for the Arizona ground game, forcing a greater number of passes to wide-outs Fitzgerald and Boldin. Can one really expect Fitzgerald to post similar fantasy stats after adding Edgerrin James? Another item of concern is that Fitzgerald does not have blazing speed and uses pure athleticism to make the big play. Without the ability to run by defenders, Fitzgerald must use his cunning and leaping ability to maintain his production.
Analysis: The comparison between Fitzgerald and Smith stops after their similar fantasy numbers. Smith is a full four years older that Fitz and gives away six inches and forty pounds on top of it. Smith came back strong a year after an early season exit in 2004 due to a broken leg. As a small WR, a coach must be concerned about the abuse he will endure over a full 16 game schedule. Conversely, Fitzgerald has been durable through college and in the NFL. In 2006 most defenses will double Smith full time and force Delhomme to beat coverage on Keyshawn's side of the field. Until Keyshawn proves to be capable, I fully expect Smith's numbers to be down for the year, but certainly still noteworthy. Being that we are focusing on Dynasty formats, the nod must go to Fitzgerald due to size/durability, years remaining and offensive talent. And there is something to be said for choosing a player that is a class act, quiet and exudes leadership qualities. You get all of that and more in Larry Fitzgerald. Take him without a second thought in the late 2 nd round and then sit back for the next 10 years and watch his numbers pile up. Answer the phone, the Hall of Fame is calling!Ken Kelly 's Selection:
Steve Smith WR Car
Age: 27 2005: 103/1563/12
Positives: Smith was the #1 fantasy wideout in virtually every scoring format last season after his recovery from a gruesome leg injury in 2004. He'd been clamoring to be “the man” for years, and he's earned the right to be called just that after a 1,563 yard, 12 TD season. Unlike Fitzgerald, Smith had to earn most of yards by breaking double and sometimes triple team defenses. With the arrival of another threat in Keyshawn Johnson, Smith should have some more one-on-one matchups in 2006 and beyond. Keyshawn is the perfect compliment to Smith. He's a big enough threat to force teams to defend, but not a big enough one to steal much of Smith's thunder (i.e. Anquan Boldin). Even if Keyshawn doesn't produce, one can't assume Smith's numbers will decrease. Nobody defended Keary Colbert last year and Smith still got his. In a league that rewards points for return yardage, the difference is even greater. Smith is a threat to take any punt to the house and earn return yardage points in addition to the numbers he puts up as a wideout. That's a clear advantage over most receivers. Another positive aspect to Smith's situation is the franchise he calls home. Carolina has showed a consistent commitment to be a winning organization. He should always find himself surrounded by winners at QB and OL and be the centerpiece of the offense for years to come. There are no egos to feed except his own, and that's perfect for a showman like Stevie. The scary thing about leg injuries is that you usually don't fully recover for more than a year. What's that going to look like?
Negatives: Smith does have some present and future challenges. The Carolina offense has always been predicated on running the football and DeAngelo Williams is going to get his in the not so distant future. That has to take some opportunities away from Smith. In addition, the concerns over his durability are valid. He's had his share of nagging injuries, in addition to the season ender in 2004. Another short term concern is the relationship Smith will have with Keyshawn Johnson. Key isn't exactly used to playing second fiddle to anyone and there seems to be some friction between the two already. Ironically, Johnson could hold the “key” to Smith's success as every Batman needs a Robin. You just have to hope Keyshawn doesn't want to be Batman. No team or player performs well when internal rivalries prevail over team philosophy. Plus, who wants to see either of them in tights?
Analysis: The comparison between Fitzgerald and Smith doesn't have to stop at their similar fantasy numbers. While the age difference is certainly a plus on the side of Fitzgerald, Smith is only 27 and hasn't spent his career as a full-time starter, thus saving his body from some hits. Besides, receivers typically don't hit their prime until they're between 28 and 30. They have also have a tendency to play much longer than other positions like RBs. You could get a few more years from Fitzgerald, but the production for the next eight-plus years should be in favor of Smith, especially when the return yardage possibilities are factored in. There is something to be said about choosing a class-act player on and off the field…but no points are awarded for classiness or character. There's also something to be said about choosing a player who has worked his entire career to silence the critics and still plays with a chip on his shoulder, regardless of his numbers. Keep calling him small and incapable, and he'll continue to make snow angels in the end zone.