2009 Dynasty League Rookie Mock Draft
Posted: 4/27/09
The NFL draft is over, so now the fun begins! Many leagues will be starting their rookie and free agent drafts shortly, so here is a first-glance mock draft to use as a guide. Scoring systems and roster restrictions certainly make a big difference, but this is how I see the first round going in a standard 12-team league.
1.01 Knowshon Moreno RB DEN
It’s a very tough call between Moreno and Wells. However, Moreno’s pass catching ability and potential to be a focal point of the offense gives him the edge. Many were shocked that he went to Denver based on their recent signings of LaMont Jordan, JJ Arrington and Correll Buckhalter. Let’s be real, though. Those guys are all backups and you don’t draft a player at #12 in hopes of platooning him in a real RBBC. While some others may steal carries, Moreno will be the first true featured back in the Mile High City since Clinton Portis.
1.02 Chris “Beanie” Wells RB ARI
Wells should start right away and he has a great blend of size and strength. However, there are two things that hold me back from saying he’s the #1 rookie pick. First, Arizona simply doesn’t run the football with the current regime. That may change a little when Warner is gone, but as long as Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston are around, they’re going to be the most-used weapons. Second, Tim Hightower is a very similar runner. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see him vulture some goal-line work. I just don’t see Wells matching Moreno’s potential with 15 carries per game.
1.03 Michael Crabtree WR SF
This is the last player you could make a case for going first. In fact, I wouldn’t blink if you took him. In fact, I would if I played in a PPR league. However, SF has been historically bad at QB for a long time and the Shaun Hill / Alex Smith combination doesn’t exactly have me jumping out of my seat. I believe Crabtree will be far and away the best WR from this class, but I wonder if his long-term numbers will be altered based on being on a blue-collar, run-first oriented offense.
1.04 Donald Brown RB IND
The Colts can say all they want about Joseph Addai’s starting job not being in jeopardy. The fact of the matter is actions always speak louder than words. Addai has been legendary for great play in stretches, and big-time fades at the end of seasons. I would expect Donald Brown’s numbers to be similar to Dominic Rhodes’ in the worst end of a 40/60 split. However, his long-term upside in a Peyton Manning led offense can’t be ignored. Addai’s leash just got significantly shortened.
1.05 Shonn Greene RB NYJ
The first pick of the second day could prove to be a valuable one for dynasty owners. Greene is going to be the unquestioned “next in line” to the aging Thomas Jones. He isn’t incredibly exciting, but he has a lot of ability. The Jets will always need a solid running game based on their environmental factors late in the season and Greene will be counted on as a workhorse at some point the next few years. If you’re patient, you could be rewarded.
1.06 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
Brown, Greene and McCoy should go 4-5-6 in some type of order. In my book, they’re all close. Westbrook isn’t getting any younger and McCoy has feature back potential. However, from a dynasty perspective, I’d be concerned about just how good that offense will be post-McNabb. Regardless, McCoy is a solid dynasty pick and he ends what I see as the “second tier” of picks in round one.
1.07 Matt Stafford QB DET
Stafford has all the ability in the world, and an all-pro receiver in Calvin Johnson. Kevin Smith proved to be a capable RB as well. He’ll have every opportunity to show off that golden arm as soon as week one. My concern with Stafford is his inconsistency. His talent has never translated to the field on a consistent basis. In the NFL, that’s a major red flag. He should be the first QB taken, though.
1.08 Percy Harvin WR MIN
The classic boom or bust pick here. Harvin has been the best player on the field in pretty much every game he’s played in. He’s incredibly dynamic and got placed in the perfect offense for his skills. The turf scares me a bit with his injury history, but his personality carries the most risk. A player who has had problems dating back to high school would really make me nervous – especially after he cashes that first check. Regardless, he could easily be the steal of any rookie draft.
1.09 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ
There is a ton of hype about Sanchez. Being from the Northwest, I saw him play a lot. He has a lot of ability, can make all the throws and possesses the “it” factor. His lack of experience, coupled with the fact he will play in a cold, windy, and otherwise unfriendly QB environment move him below Stafford. If I had to choose a bust on this list, it would be him. In fact, I really hesitate in getting excited for any of the QBs this year.
1.10 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
Maclin isn’t quite as dynamic as Harvin, but he’s likely a much safer selection. The Eagles have a nice corps of WRs now with DeSean Jackson, Maclin and Kevin Curtis. Though Maclin is very similar to Jackson, they should complement each other nicely. My concern with Maclin is the same as McCoy. How good are they when McNabb is no longer around.
1.11 Hakeem Nicks WR NYG
At this point in the round, you’re simply hoping to nail something good. Nicks has a great opportunity in New York with the departure of Plaxico Burress. He should be an immediate red zone threat at the very least and possesses something Eli Manning really likes – size.
1.12 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR OAK
The first WR taken in the NFL draft should be no better than the 5th WR taken in a rookie dynasty draft. Al Davis loves speed and Heyward-Bey certainly has it. He was said to be disappointed in running “only” a 4.30 at the combine and is said to have been clocked as fast as 4.23. That’s pretty incredible. However, he struggles getting off the line and the Raiders struggle in general. I don’t see either of those changing enough to warrant a higher pick for him.
So, there you go. There’s one man’s first look at what a rookie draft could look like. This year’s crop of rookies is not nearly as deep on paper as last year’s. However, history shows us that you never know what a class really is until you look back five years later. Study up on all the summer mini-camps and unearth those future gems.
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