Dynasty Stock Market
Posted: 4/4/09Player Stock Market
Dynasty Stock Up
QB
1. Trent Edwards, BUF – Edwards finished 2008 just
outside the NFL’s top 5 completion percentages; a great sign coupled
with a YPA of greater than 7. With WR Terrell Owens on board, the Bills
will throw a lot more downfield.
2 . Kyle Orton, DEN– Orton's move to Denver doesn't
guarantee him a starter's role, but puts him in the driver's seat. Should
he win the job, Orton's value takes a significant jump. Don't expect another
Jay Cutler but Orton has enough to succeed.
3 . Luke McCown, TB – Assuming the Buccs are out
of the Jay Cutler race, McCown could turn out to be an Aaron Rodgers-type
in that he has experience on a roster and the talent to succeed. He could
easily be good for 20 TDs.
4 . Chad Henne, MIA – Has all the tools to be a
quality starter in the league. His ability is very good and the opportunity
is outstanding.
5 . Sage Rosenfels, MIN – Rosenfels has a decent
arm, has good mobility and can be a gunslinger. The Vikings will have
someone to stabilize their offense so his baseline could be 17-20 TDs.
Not a starter in most fantasy leagues, but a solid backup or bye week
fill-in.
RB
1. Fred Jackson, BUF – Jackson looked awfully good
last season in a backup role and was surprisingly productive in the passing
game. He will get at least a game or two as the starter and their run-heavy
offense will get a shot in the arm with TO on the field.
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG – Unless Danny Ware goes
off, Bradshaw will be the backup in New York. Pretty solid sleeper as
Jacobs will most likely miss a few starts.
3. Steve Slaton, HOU – The good news for Slaton
is that, unless a draft pick enters the mix (not going to happen in round
1), Chris Brown is the #2 RB. He will be pure gold in PPR leagues.
4. Darren Sproles, SD – LaDainian Tomlinson is
back, but Sproles certainly does not mind. He’ll get his 10-12 touches
a game and he can be a top-20 back this year with a consistent role in
the offense. He’s even better outlook long-term since his legs will
be young when he’s able to pick an ideal team to go to in 2010.
WR
1. Anthony Gonzalez, IND – 75+ catches, 900 yards,
5 TDs is his baseline with Harrison gone. His after the catch skills have
improved tremendously over the last year and a half and he has one of
the best ever getting him the rock in Peyton Manning.
2. Josh Morgan, SF – Unquestionably the best wide
receiver on the San Francisco roster. It may be too late to get Morgan
on the cheap, but he has the potential to have a monster year.
3. Mike Walker, JAC – If Walker can stay healthy
(big “IF”), he has the opportunity to showcase his talent
with Matt Jones and Reggie Williams gone. Huge sleeper candidate.
4. Steve Smith, NYG – Unless he’s dealt in
the upcoming days, Steve Smith is the best option for the Giants with
Mario Manningham’s lack of experience. Smith could be a very nice
option in PPR leagues.
5. Dwayne Bowe, KC – I can’t wrap my head
around the production Bowe had with Tyler Thigpen running the show. Get
him now before Todd Haley assures him of being a top-8 WR for many years.
6. Miles Austin, DAL – Young player with huge upside
potential as the starter alongside Roy Williams. It might be a longshot,
but he could put up 70/5/1,000 if the cards fall right.
7. Davone Bess, MIA – Bess emerged late last year
as an undrafted free agent that has excellent ball skills. He is a nice
buy-low candidate even if the Fins add to the depth chart early in the
draft.
8. Devin Hester, CHI - The right QB in a system can make
all the difference. Hester was already said to be more in the mix in 2009
and Cutler's arrival only helps in that regard.
9. Earl Bennett, CHI - Bennett is entering his second
year and is running as a starter early in 2009. A more capable QB will
help him to be more successful, but the most important fact is that CHI
has lost its first round selection which eliminates their first round
WR desire. No first round rookie will be drafted to compete with Bennett.
Dynasty Stock Down
QB
1. Tyler Thigpen, KC – Thigpen was never a legit
NFL QB which makes it awfully hard to be on a roster in dynasty leagues.
His completion and QB rating were just awful, but the Chiefs had to play
from behind a lot. If Matt Cassel is your starting QB and you don’t
have a better backup option, your team is in worse shape than you thought.
2. Brady Quinn, CLE – You go from guaranteed starter
to questions about your leadership in a matter of weeks. You lose your
number one target in TE Kellen Winslow. Donte Stallworth? Law troubles.
Joe Jurevisius? Retired. Braylon Edwards? On the block. Could be a long
winter on the Cuyahoga River.
3. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN – Sage Rosenfels got his
paycheck and will probably the starter next season if the competition
truly is “open.” Vikings fans knew this day was coming.
4. Mark Bulger, StL – Donnie Avery, Derek Stanley
and Keenan Burton are about as inexperienced as it gets as a unit in the
NFL.
5 . Joe Flacco, BAL – TE L.J. Smith does not qualify
as “upgrading offensive firepower”. Unless the Ravens go WR
often in this year’s draft, Flacco’s improvement will be stunted
for at least another season. The loss of stud C Jason Brown does not help
his cause.
RB
1. All Bronco RBs – Unless Peyton Hillis, Selvin
Young and Andre Hall get traded, all 6 RBs (Buckhalter, Jordan & Arrington)
are destined for fantasy mediocrity. Or irrelevance.
2. Earnest Graham, TB – You could put Cadillac
Williams here as well, but he’s as good as done anyhow. Derrick
Ward will carry this team with the coin he is making and the zone-read
style offense he was born to run in. Graham is no longer a top-35 dynasty
back.
3. Laurence Maroney, NE – Truly fighting to keep
any dynasty or keeper league value after the Patriots acquired Fred Taylor.
Sammy Morris, Taylor, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis: that’s
a mighty nasty depth chart to try to claw through.
WR/TE
1. Robert Meachum, NO – Surprisingly, Devery Henderson
was handed a nice contract which absolutely hammered Meachum’s value;
it’s probably time to stop “stashing him away for next season.”
Now, Meach is stuck behind Colston, Lance Moore (unless someone offers
a 2nd rounder before the draft) and Henderson.
2. James Hardy, BUF – WR Steve Johnson absolutely
took Hardy to school last season and the ACL injury certainly did not
help. Johnson was the consensus #30 WR in last year’s draft. Hardy?
Top-3. Scrapping for PT behind TO certainly hampers progress.
3. Antonio Bryant, TB – After last year’s
salvation of his career, I don’t see Bryant coming through again
with a rookie offensive coordinator, new QB and a big fat paycheck. The
only possible upside is that the Buccs have no one else to throw it to.
4. Todd Heap, TE, BAL – Words can’t describe
how disappointing Heap’s career has become. When L.J. Smith is an
upgrade you know you’re in trouble.
5. Nate Burleson, SEA – Looks like Nate is headed
to the bench now that T.J. Houshmandzadeh has been signed. Hey, at least
we don’t have to wait for that return to relevance any longer.
6. Andre Caldwell, CIN – In typical Cincinnati
fashion, the Bengals foolishly push Caldwell (a natural replacement for
T.J. Houshmandzadeh) down the depth chart after signing Laveranues Coles.
Caldwell has the skills but just won’t get the opportunity.
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