Trading Tactics (part 2)
Updated: 5/22/06Snake-Oil Salesman
Successful trading is a dirty job. It requires a coach to be one part psychic, one part strategist, one part best-friend, one part psychologist and two parts snake-oil salesman. You need to be proficient in all of these roles before you can expect to start improving your team consistently over a long period of time. And make no mistake, successful trading is potentially the most important skill a coach must have if he/she is has any hope of building and maintaining a dynasty.
For purposes of simplicity, we will assume that you have already become familiar with the steps from our first trading article: Trading Tactics #1: The Essential Components. The foundational guidelines from the first article must be understood if you expect to complete a successful trade. Let's define "successful trade" as:
A trade that improves your team by giving up the least amount of 'value'.
Sounds simple doesn't it? The problem is each coach is trying to do the same thing. Those who master the components of becoming a successful snake-oil salesman will find themselves with the world at their feet. Those that cannot will be wearing a flower-print dress and serving Coronas at the next draft party.
Over the years I have heard variations of the following statement:
Jeff, if you are willing to make that trade, then somehow I am going to end up getting screwed. There must be something wrong with it.
When you are known as a successful trader, then you must be also comfortable with the fact that you will be known, at least to some degree, as a snake-oil salesman. How you manage that role is what really matters. Remember that the salesman still makes his money.
For those who need a refresher, remember that a snake oil salesman is usually characterized as a man from the old west who would market a miracle elixir from atop a soapbox or the back of his wagon. While this elixir's use would vary widely, in the end it was a miracle cure-all for whatever ailed you. The most successful of these salesmen had great charisma and could work an audience like an artist, enticing the public to purchase his elixir based on the belief that it would solve any problem the person was experiencing. In short, the salesman would give the unwitting individuals exactly what they needed to hear in order to close the deal. And it is by no coincidence that visits to each new town were kept very, very short.
If you are still struggling to link this concept in terms of our current day and fantasy football, let me see if I can help just a bit: Drew Rosenhaus. Now that we have that cleared up.
Understand that while a successful trading coach could/will have many similarities to a snake-oil salesman, you must also be aware of the pitfalls. Let's discuss some of the do's and don'ts:
Do: Maximize the value of what you are offering
It is not for you to correctly value a player or even be objective about his past performance, that's the job of the other coach in the trade. Focus on the positives from a player's performance, regardless of when it was. Extrapolate performance into full year numbers when it benefits the player, ignore injury history and team quality. An aging player is "proven" when trying to trade them away, and "diminishing" when trying to receive them in trade. A young player has "tremendous upside" when limited history is available and trying to trade them away, and is "unproven and susceptible" when trying to receive them in trade. Again, it is for the other coach to determine if your assessments are correct or not.
Do Not: Overtly lie or fabricate information
Successful trading is about accentuating the positive and diminishing the negative. But just as important is the fact that successful trading is about creating a relationship with a fellow coach in a way that keeps the lines of communication open and flowing. Overt misrepresentation, lying or insulting behavior will close the door to a trade faster than you can say Rosenhaus. In law it is called "leading the witness" whereby the attorney leads the witness towards agreeing to what is "commonly known". When you can influence a coach to buy into the value proposition of your offer, the advantage has swung to you. If your reputation is such that open lines of communication do not exist with other coaches in your league, whether earned or not, your ability to get deals done is severely limited. For this reason, you must always balance your sales tactics.
Do: State only the obvious and imply all else
Especially if you are known as a trader, then understand your reputation precedes you into the trade. A well-used tactic of successful trading, whether you have a reputation or not, is to state only those things that need to be stated and imply or indirectly turn the conversation into beneficial areas. In this case, less is more. Allow the other coach to take the bait and make the statement that benefits you. The more talking that is done by your trade partner, the more likely a successful outcome for you.
Do : Shoot for the stars and hope for the moon
When a deal is close and you can tell that the other coach is excited about the offer, do not be afraid to include other variables in the trade equation. An additional 2 nd round pick, that deep developmental QB or bench riding handcuff all can be easily included in trades that are nearly complete. The trick in getting "adds" (additionals) is to not overplay your hand or jump at any offer. To do so shows excitement which can then reduce the possibility of the additional player. Always stay well grounded during trade discussions and err on the side of pessimism for all deals until the end. If your trade partner is sold on a possible deal, your consternation can be rewarded when you ask "hmmm, that is a bit much, would you be willing to throw in your 2 nd round pick this year? Most coaches agree on trades based on the primary players involved. If secondary players or picks do not contain immediate impact or value, you are much more likely to get them included in a deal involving other primary targets. Do not, however, ask for too much additional. Once a coach says "no" to a request, the likelihood that a "yes" for another lesser option to follow is much less.
Do: Assess the tendencies of your fellow coaches
One of the most successful strategies to utilize in the dynasty league is to obtain future draft picks for players currently on your roster, characterized as excess depth or aging veterans. You must understand that each coach views and values draft picks and players differently. Being a successful trader involves not only understanding this concept, but also understanding the tendencies of the other coaches in your league. Which coaches covet draft picks highly when compared to current players? Which coaches value their players so ridiculously high, that discussing any trade is a waste of your time? Which coaches jump at the rookie that has just had a big game? Which coaches are not at all objective about the position of a draft pick compared to the talent available? .and which coaches freely move players/picks almost without regard to their team needs? Assessment of the coaches allows you to be a chameleon when it comes to the trade discussions, giving a coach exactly what they need to hear in order to increase the chance of a successful trade. Remember, it is not up to you to be objective about your offer.
Do Not: Assume that coaches do not change their behavior(s)
While assessment of your fellow coaches is important, many factors can change their behavior. Tendencies often remain constant, but behaviors can and do change. Often times this will be due to the time of season, injuries, non-football related events, etc. Stay nimble and recognize the tendencies of the coaches you are dealing with, but allow for a certain amount of variation.
Do: Analyze the amount of patience needed
This can be the most difficult task for any coach. Patience, or lack thereof, can determine whether a deal gets done or whether it dies on the vine. Whether the architect of a trade or the receiver of an offer, differing levels of patience is needed to increase the odds that a deal in your favor is done. Use what you know about your counterpart to your advantage. Every coach loves a good deal. And when a coach believes he/she is the recipient of a good deal, and that deal is to your benefit, then it would serve you well to get it done as quickly as possible. Terms such as "why wait?", "Slam Dunk", "No Brainer" and "win/win" all imply that deal makes sense and to not think so proves some level of ignorance. By not closing the sale early, you risk the coach receiving other offers or getting cold feet. On the other hand, if you are the recipient of a trade offer or are making an offer to a coach that is more of an analyzer, recognize that patience is most likely your best friend. Research the claims of the offering coach as it relates to stats, age and player situation. As the offering coach, be patient if your trade partner is one to analyze a situation. Be confident in the fact that you have capitalized on a situation, given good information and that your seed has been planted. Give it time to bare fruit.
Do Not: Force a trade
While raping and pillaging another team can elicit great feelings for many coaches, doing so does not raise their stock within the league, or their trade partner. While it is your main goal to improve your team by giving up the least amount of value, success will be determined over many years. There are a finite number of coaches in your league and you need to maintain good relations with as many as possible so that you can keep going back to the well. Forcing a coach into a trade that they later regret, and in which the league feels was terribly unbalanced to begin with (even though it served your needs), decreases the chances of you pulling off a successful trade on your next attempt. Do so more than once and you will quickly get a negative reputation that will significantly impact your future trade opportunities. Rely on the subtle use of your skills from this article, make the trade and keep your yap shut. If you know you got the better end of the deal, and the other coach is confident in the deal he/she made, then you could not have a better scenario.
Do: Focus on coaches who are willing trade partners
This goes back to assessing the coaches within your league. Every coach has different tendencies and those tendencies can be used to your advantage. Every coach has tradable assets, whether they exist in the form of rostered players or future draft picks. In most cases, coaches without significant rostered assets will have better draft picks in upcoming drafts; do not fail to recognize these situations. Identify those coaches that have immediate gratification personalities and trade your excess for future draft picks in the upcoming draft.
Do Not: Try to get blood from a rock
Many coaches take an inordinate amount of effort to trade with, even if the trade involves secondary players. In most cases, this is due to the coach either over-valuing their players, under-valuing yours or due to the fear of the unknown. We all make trades that eventually don't pan out. For an active trader, it is going to happen, get over it. But, as long as your league contains a number of willing coaches, there is no need to focus on those that are unwilling or unable. While you always want to give them an opportunity to make an offer, do not expect the zebra to change its stripes. Move along, nothing to see here.
Do: Establish allies, especially in the other division
If you have a divisional format for your league, do not underestimate the power of alliances against a common 'foe' (those usually being the divisional champion the year before). By creating an air of teamwork towards a common enemy, you increase your chances of getting a deal done. Excessive enthusiasm and positive energy can go a long way in swaying the trade offer to your side. For example, in a trade scenario that you wish to move along with an inter-divisional coach, an overly cheerful phone call in which you state "Lets get this deal done, get them off the top of the standings, and we'll be meeting in the championship" can be all that is needed to secure the deal. Your goal is to get final approval from the coach and get the deal to the commissioner for immediate approval. Do you care if you meet the other coach in the championship game next year? Of course not, but you are trying to increase your odds of being one of the participants. It is always a good idea to trade outside your division whenever possible, unless you are certain that your team is getting the better end of the bargain. Making a divisional rival better via trade is never a recommended practice.
Do Not: Burn bridges or sell-out
We have all had situations where information has been used against us. It happens in the NFL draft, and it happens in fantasy football drafts as well. It is always in your best interest to know who is going to be drafted ahead of you in the draft. It is also extremely helpful to know the players which coaches are targeting below you in the draft, though this information is usually difficult to get as coaches are very secretive about their draft selections, for obvious reasons. If you elect to share information with those above you, even if a coach has told you who he is taking, do so at your own risk. Even the slightest bit of logic as to your selection can make a coach change his mind. Ultimately, you become the loser in that situation. When establishing relationships with other coaches for the purpose of obtaining information, do not, do not, do not sell them out by sharing that info with coaches ahead of them in the draft. As a successful snake-oil salesman, you do have to abide by some unwritten rules of engagement. Quite simply put, if you sell out a fellow coach that has shared information that benefits you, expect to never be trusted with information again. Or, if a coach below you has given you his direction based on your 'selection', and you change direction and take their player, expect the same result. Coaches do not like to be burned and regardless of the reasoning, it won't float.
As you can see, the seemingly simple task of completing a trade can be made very difficult. Know that none of this is required for working a deal. However, the name of the game is success over a long period of time. In order to be successful, you need to consistently get more than you give. Those coaches who pay special attention to the intricacies of psychology, communication and relationship building are the ones who will be able to stack the deck in their favor.
As one final reminder, always remember to downplay your trades and your role as a trader. While we all want to be successful traders, gaining that perception erodes your ability to continue engaging in successful trades. As your fellow coaches become familiar with your volume and success, the bar is raised. Do not under, any circumstances, allow your ego or joy from a successful trade to dictate your course of action in your rumor mill or distribution list to other coaches. Again, keep your yap shut and your enthusiasm to yourself.
Trade well.